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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The govt needs to step in to revive rural demand -Himanshu

The govt needs to step in to revive rural demand -Himanshu

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published Published on Jul 4, 2018   modified Modified on Jul 4, 2018
-Livemint.com

Agriculture is not only crucial for what happens to growth, inflation and rural distress, it is also politically important given the simmering discontent among farmers in the last two years

Last week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared that the south-west monsoon has covered the entire country, 15 days earlier than normal. This may be a cause for celebration considering the distress in agriculture in the last four years. Agriculture is not only crucial for what happens to growth, inflation and rural distress, it is also politically important given the large-scale protests and simmering discontent among farmers in the last two years. While the reasons for discontent are many, with the government also contributing to it, one factor that will play a role is the monsoon.

Unfortunately, the good news shared by IMD is not that good, looking at the regional scenario. Even at the all-India level, after the first month with data up to 1 July, monsoon rainfall is cumulatively 7% less than normal, putting it in the deficient category, as against the prediction of normal monsoon. Disaggregated data shows that only 24% of land area in the country has received normal or excess monsoon rainfall, while 38% falls in the deficient category and another 38% in the large-deficient category. It is this 76% deficient category, which is worrying because in some of these regions, deficient rainfall is far too serious to be ignored.

Areas that have received normal to excess rainfall are the southern peninsular states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, along with the north-western states of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan. The north-western states are anyway among regions with better irrigation coverage and monsoon does not make much of a difference. But it is the deficient states and regions that should cause worry to the government.

Gujarat is among the states with the largest deficiency, with the Saurashtra region receiving 86% less rainfall and remaining parts of the state receiving 34% less rainfall. Others include the eastern states of Odisha (28% deficient), eastern Uttar Pradesh (59% deficient), western Uttar Pradesh (48% deficient), Bihar (39% deficient), Jharkhand (37% deficient) and Gangetic West Bengal (19% deficient). These states are among the poorest, with agrarian crisis hitting them hard in the last four years.

While there is still time for monsoon to cover the deficiency, it has already affected sowing of major kharif crops. As on 29 June, total kharif sowing was 21.6% less than the area sown until this week last year. Total foodgrain sowing was lower by 25%, with paddy sowing lower by 10% and coarse cereals by 30%. On the other hand, area sown under pulses and oilseeds has declined by 41% and 44%, respectively, compared to that of last year. The situation is the same for non-food crops such as cotton, which has reported lower sowing by 30% compared to that of last year.

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Livemint.com, 2 July, 2018, https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/bPjcrSbyFDfPU2ALNeV3BO/The-govt-needs-to-step-in-to-revive-rural-demand.html


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