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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The oil & rupee problem -Kirit Parikh

The oil & rupee problem -Kirit Parikh

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published Published on Nov 17, 2018   modified Modified on Nov 17, 2018
-The Indian Express

A balanced approach can reduce petrol price without affecting revenues. RBI mustn’t artificially shore up rupee

The Brent crude oil price has changed from around $68/barrel in January to $70/barrel on November 9, touching a high of $86 on October 3. The rupee has also fallen from Rs 63.30 per US$ in January to Rs 70 on November 9. These fluctuations have created major policy problems for the government. The consumers are agitated because of high prices of petroleum products. At the same time, the government is concerned about containing its fiscal and current account deficits.

Crude oil price in the international market may increase as the sanctions on Iran have become operative. While India has been given exemption from the sanctions by the US, the sanctions will affect the global oil market. India will be affected by higher oil price as India imports less than 10 per cent of its total imports from Iran, which may be paid in rupees. What should India do?

The retail price of petrol exceeds Rs 80/litre in many cities, causing much hardship to consumers many of whom are users of two-wheelers. The government has been reluctant to reduce excise tax as it will stress its budget. High price would encourage people to use less petrol, reduce unnecessary travel and promote use of public transport where it is available.

In October when the oil price reached $86/barrel the government cut excise duty by Rs 1.50 and asked the oil marketing companies (OMCs) to cut price further by Rs 1.0. Though the subsequent drop in crude price has reduced the burden on OMCs, this was a bad move. Going back to this regime of price control and subsidies is a serious mistake. Since the government would provide subsidy only to public sector undertakings, private firms would go out of retail business. This would reduce competition and lower incentives to public sector undertakings to be more efficient. Even more damaging would be the signal it would send to potential investors that government policies are uncertain, their perceived risk of getting into the oil sector in India would increase and they would be reluctant to invest in exploration or production. Our dependence on imports will grow.

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The Indian Express, 16 November, 2018, https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/brent-crude-oil-price-change-5448664/


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