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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The pandemic in data: How Covid-19 has devastated India’s economy -Swati Dhingra & Maitreesh Ghatak

The pandemic in data: How Covid-19 has devastated India’s economy -Swati Dhingra & Maitreesh Ghatak

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published Published on Jul 9, 2021   modified Modified on Jul 11, 2021

-Scroll.in

The sharp drop in GDP is the largest in the country’s history – and even that may well underestimate the economic damage experienced by the poorest households.

From April to June 2020, India’s GDP dropped by a massive 24.4%. According to the latest national income estimates, in the second quarter of the 2020-’21 financial year (July-September 2020), the economy contracted by a further 7.4%, with the third and fourth quarters (October 2020-March 2021) seeing only a weak recovery, with GDP rising 0.5% and 1.6%, respectively. This means that overall rate of contraction in India was (in real terms, adjusted for inflation) 7.3% for the whole 2020-’21 financial year.

Worst ever economic performance

In the post-Independence period, India’s national income has declined only four times before 2020 – in 1958, 1966, 1973 and 1980 – with the largest drop being in 1980 (5.2%). This means that 2020-’21 is the worst year in terms of economic contraction in the country’s history and much worse than the overall contraction in the world (Figure 1). The contraction is solely responsible for reversing the trend of global inequality, which has now started to rise after three decades (Deaton, 2021; Ferreira, 2021).

What do macroeconomic indicators say?

While economies worldwide have been hit hard, India has suffered one of the largest contractions. During the 2020-’21 financial year, the rate of decline in GDP for the world was 3.3% and 2.2% for emerging market and developing economies. Table 1 summarises macroeconomic indicators for India, along with a reference group of comparable countries and the world. The fact that India’s growth rate in 2019 was among the highest makes the drop due to Covid-19 even more noticeable.

If we compare India’s unemployment rate in 2020 with other countries, India has performed relatively poorly – both in terms of the world average and compared with a set of reference group economies (with similar per capita incomes to India’s). Unemployment rates were more muted within the reference group economies and were also kept low by generous labour market policies to keep people in work.

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Scroll.in, 9 July, 2021, https://scroll.in/article/999275/the-pandemic-in-data-how-covid-19-has-devasted-indias-economy


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