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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The problem of plenty by Rohtash Mal

The problem of plenty by Rohtash Mal

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published Published on Jun 5, 2011   modified Modified on Jun 5, 2011
Indian farmers have much to celebrate this year with a bumper wheat harvest. As predicted by the ministry of agriculture, wheat farmers have begun to harvest what is shaping up to be a record crop, projected at 84.27 million tonnes. We are growing more wheat than ever before. The earlier record of 80.8 million tonnes of wheat production was achieved in 2009-10.

Estimates show that foodgrain production including wheat, rice, pulses and coarse cereals will also see a surge, and will go up to 235.88 million tonnes this crop year as compared to the earlier record of 234.47 million tonnes achieved way back in 2008-09. The momentum is said to continue with the timely arrival of southwest monsoons, auguring well for the sowing of wheat, coarse cereals and oilseeds. All of this should sound like good news to a country that is one of the world's largest wheat consumers, but there is an underlying sense of despondency among farmers and economists alike.

India today is on the brink of a conundrum brought about by the unusual 'problem of plenty'. In a country still reeling from the effects of high food inflation, the sudden surge in agricultural output is bringing with it a unique set of challenges. The situation has been significantly aggravated by the state of our struggling storage infrastructure, and the complex nature of our procurement systems. At risk are not only farmers' livelihoods but also the overall health of the economy.

A key part of the current problem lies with the state procurement system. Despite strengthening of the procurement mechanism of state governments, thousands of farmers have been waiting in line for their produce to be sold. Unable to wait longer, farmers are being forced to sell their precious crop to traders for less than the minimum support price (MSP). According to several reports, wheat's procurement price in several parts of Gujarat, Bihar and eastern UP has fallen to as low as Rs 1,000-1,050 a quintal, less than the state-set MSP of Rs 1,170. The situation is no different for other crops like sugarcane, cotton and rice. The low price is already hitting small and marginal farmers as they don't have holding capacity. Cash crop farmers dependent on normal crop are badly impacted.

Compounding this situation is the government's policy on exports. For example, in the case of cotton, exports have been permitted to the extent of only 55 lakh bales out of a total production of 330 lakh bales (approximately 17%), as against last year when exports were permitted up to about 30% of production.

The second problem comes with the government being ill-equipped to efficiently store and use this bumper crop. To counter the problem of food inflation the government has banned exports of wheat and therefore ends up being the biggest buyer from the farmers. However, pathetic storage infrastructure results in enormous volumes of grains rotting every year.

Poor government offtake, low MSP and a harsh interest rate regime are resulting in problems for farmers in loan repayments. A further drop in prices is expected with insufficient storage capacity, ban on exports and a normal monsoon forecast. This may further impact the sowing season with monsoon hitting south India. As a result what we see is a ripple effect – impacting the rural economy in the months to come – driving down rural consumption and further slowing down the overall economy.

While we can consider long-term measures to counter this problem by building proper storage facilities and letting private players into the procurement and storage process, it is important to look at short-term measures immediately. A signi-ficant step would be to lift or modify restrictions on export of wheat to cash in on good prices and short supply in global markets. With good quality yield and poor storage infrastructure, it would be best to look at relaxing export of wheat and other crops like cotton, with global prices still being favourable.

To control the problem of food inflation, the government can look at setting up a quota of how much wheat it would like to buy from farmers, with the rest of the produce being sold by the farmer in the free market. Improving the public distribution system's efficiency, rationalising mandi tax which is as high as 14% in Punjab and using UID effectively to provide food coupons to people below the poverty line are other measures to combat food inflation and balance high farm gate prices.

If such short-term measures are not undertaken, this problem of excess will be detrimental for the rural economy and impact India's overall growth momentum. A large economic price is extracted when the government fails to intervene at these stages, resulting in farmers being driven into debt despite a bumper harvest. The incidence of farm debt invariably results in future pressures for a waiver of loans resulting in further fiscal pressures. While arguably export of wheat might result in price corrections in the mandi, the market is already geared to absorb wheat at the MSP and there would be no additional price pressures arising from normalisation of prices to MSP levels.

It is imperative for the government to consider the macro-economic perspective and adopt a dynamic policy system keeping in mind fluctuating farm production. It needs to act fast and take aggressive steps to correct our current problem of plenty before the rot starts to eat away at our stellar economic growth.

The writer is executive director and chief executive officer, Escorts Agriculture Machinery Group.

The Times of India, 6 June, 2011, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/The-problem-of-plenty/articleshow/8740040.cms


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