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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The Return of Food Inflation: Why it’s Different this time -Samridhi Agarwal and Harish Damodaran

The Return of Food Inflation: Why it’s Different this time -Samridhi Agarwal and Harish Damodaran

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published Published on Jun 30, 2022   modified Modified on Jul 1, 2022

-Centre for Policy Research

Since the start of this calendar year, annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation has ruled not only above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target of 4%, but even its upper tolerance level of 6%, for every month from January to May. If we take the 38 months from April 2019 to May 2022 – roughly coinciding with the Narendra Modi-led government’s second term (Modi 2.0) – CPI inflation has exceeded the 4% target in as many as 32 months and even the 6% ceiling in 18 months. This has been seen by many as a failure on the part of the central bank to adhere to its inflation-targeting mandate, enshrined in law since June 2016 (https://bit.ly/3b1JJbZ and https://bit.ly/3OcrDCp).

The above “failure” is in contrast to the “success” achieved in the Modi government’s first term (Modi 1.0). During that period, roughly from April 2014 to March 2019, the 6% ceiling was breached only in 6 out of the 60 months. Moreover, CPI inflation was contained within 4% in 23 out of the 60 months. A far cry from the 6 out of 38 in Modi 2.0, with even those six being in the first six months from April to September 2019!

But the story isn’t just about overall retail inflation. During Modi 1.0, year-on-year general CPI inflation averaged 4.49%. It was even lower, at 3.52 per cent, for the consumer food price index (CFPI) inflation, with the latter ruling below the former in as many as 38 out of the 60 months. In other words, while inflation in general was benign, food inflation was even more so.

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Centre for Policy Research, 30 June, 2022, https://cprindia.org/the-return-of-food-inflation-why-its-different-this-time/?fbclid=IwAR3xg5P7jf9w1YevXcwDgqX4UlTHdIHjvVYDjAA-pCwtB8_G4hbybvXHxyo


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