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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The tenacity of hope by Dipankar Gupta </title>
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Since Cairo took to the streets, there is one question that comes up repeatedly in India. How have we been saved from such anarchy, in spite of our faltering democracy? True, Egypt's growth, between 5% and 7%, has been less..."/>
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Since Cairo took to the streets, there is one question that comes up repeatedly in India. How have we been saved from such anarchy, in spite of our faltering democracy? True, Egypt's growth, between 5% and 7%, has been less..." />
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<h1 class="cat-box-title">The tenacity of hope by Dipankar Gupta</h1>
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Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Feb 8, 2011</span>
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<br /><div align="justify">Since Cairo took to the streets, there is one question that comes up repeatedly in India. How have we been saved from such anarchy, in spite of our faltering democracy? True, Egypt's growth, between 5% and 7%, has been less spectacular than ours. But its per capita income swelled from $587 in 1981 to $1461 in 2001. Even its deficit as a percentage of GDP has fallen from 10.2% in 2002 to 7.9% in 2010. Its poverty figures are much lower than ours, given that per capita monthly income in Egypt is approximately $130.<br /><br />So, we return to the original question: why not here? First, we must thank democracy. It may be ineffective and non-performing, but it allows for oppositional voice. Our political elite is spread out in different parties and in different states and express diverse views.<br /><br />This contrasts with a banana republic where the ruling coterie hangs together. Every group member knows that together they are like a bunch of bananas; if you break free, you get skinned. By contrast, India is probably a banana-peel republic: our rulers are all over the place, slipping and sliding, from post to post, promise to promise.<br /><br />Let us look elsewhere for other differences, and they are not insignificant. True, growth in India may not have brought development and vertical mobility, what with between 40%-50% below the poverty line, but it has compensated for that with enormous horizontal mobility. This has taken a huge pressure off the cooker.<br /><br />A far, far greater proportion of Indians than Egyptians are searching for jobs and setting up homes in places their parents would never have. That over five billion railway tickets are sold every year in India gives us a measure of a society on the move. With every horizontal step, either from village to town, or from farm to non-farm employment, new ambitions and expectations are released. In this process, frustrations get an outlet and the current state of deprivation does not look so bad.<br /><br />In contrast, Egypt seems to be standing still. It is better off, it is healthier, but is not moving. When both vertical and horizontal movements are blocked off, life appears much darker. On an average, Egyptians are certainly less deprived than Indians, but it is always relative deprivation that loosens public anger. Egypt's rural population has been stagnant at about 56% for several decades, whereas in India it has fallen from approximately 80% in the 1960s to about 69% today. This has sent millions out of villages in search of jobs in all kinds of production sectors, wherever. The scope for employment in household industries has grown as a consequence, giving hope to many that their future outside agriculture might be brighter.<br /><br />Though the organised sector employs only 27 million, it is the informal sector that soaks in the rural exodus in India. Egypt seems to have fallen short on this front. Paradoxically, the informal sector, the object of so much vilification in our country, has actually kept our streets from erupting, Cairo style.<br /><br />In Egypt, the informal sector has not quite risen to the occasion. A staggering 31% of its labour force may be in the public sector, but its unemployment levels continue to grow. Unfortunately, at this crucial juncture, its informal sector has also weakened. It is no longer able to blot up the excess labour as it used to. Instead, its share of private non-agricultural employment has fallen from 74% in 1998 to 69% in 2006.<br /><br />On the other hand, self-employment has soared in the poorest parts of India, like Rajasthan (70%), UP (69%) or Bihar (61%). Quite against the trend in Egypt, the proportion of non-agricultural units in India that employ less than 10 people has jumped dramatically by 110% between 1985 and 2005. So what if main workers are down in the last census by less than 1%, marginal workers are up by 11%. In India, the poor are moving from poverty to poverty, but with each horizontal move, a little hope bubbles up in their lives.<br /><br />We are lucky in yet another way, and this again comes up from somewhat unexpected quarters. The feminisation of informal labour has also given hope to a lot of poor families. They have found jobs in garment industries and in other household units. Even in the organised sector, the recent increase of over a million workers is primarily on account of women joining the workforce. In Egypt, women's contribution in this regard is much less, and this again boxes in families. To keep them off the streets they must hope tomorrow might be different from today.<br /><br />The informal sector, however, has limited potential for absorbing anger, or releasing hope. Our educated work force is growing and with it will come the demand for proper salaried jobs. Egypt is not yet our future, but we can get a glimpse of it if we look at it closely from afar. So many of the rioters in Cairo are educated, but without employment; 46% of Egypt is below 20 years of age, our figures are quite close to that already. Again, like Cairo and Alexandria, most of the urban growth in India is happening in metros like Delhi or Mumbai.<br /><br />India is not Egypt, but how long can we keep our balance on banana skins?<br /><br /><em>The writer is former professor, JNU. </em><br /></div>
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<br><a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/The-tenacity-of-hope/articleshow/7437527.cms" class="re" target="_blank">The Times of India, 7 February, 2011, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/The-tenacity-of-hope/articleshow/7437527.cms</a><div class="clear"></div>
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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The tenacity of hope by Dipankar Gupta </title>
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Since Cairo took to the streets, there is one question that comes up repeatedly in India. How have we been saved from such anarchy, in spite of our faltering democracy? True, Egypt's growth, between 5% and 7%, has been less..."/>
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<h1 class="cat-box-title">The tenacity of hope by Dipankar Gupta</h1>
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Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Feb 8, 2011</span>
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<br /><div align="justify">Since Cairo took to the streets, there is one question that comes up repeatedly in India. How have we been saved from such anarchy, in spite of our faltering democracy? True, Egypt's growth, between 5% and 7%, has been less spectacular than ours. But its per capita income swelled from $587 in 1981 to $1461 in 2001. Even its deficit as a percentage of GDP has fallen from 10.2% in 2002 to 7.9% in 2010. Its poverty figures are much lower than ours, given that per capita monthly income in Egypt is approximately $130.<br /><br />So, we return to the original question: why not here? First, we must thank democracy. It may be ineffective and non-performing, but it allows for oppositional voice. Our political elite is spread out in different parties and in different states and express diverse views.<br /><br />This contrasts with a banana republic where the ruling coterie hangs together. Every group member knows that together they are like a bunch of bananas; if you break free, you get skinned. By contrast, India is probably a banana-peel republic: our rulers are all over the place, slipping and sliding, from post to post, promise to promise.<br /><br />Let us look elsewhere for other differences, and they are not insignificant. True, growth in India may not have brought development and vertical mobility, what with between 40%-50% below the poverty line, but it has compensated for that with enormous horizontal mobility. This has taken a huge pressure off the cooker.<br /><br />A far, far greater proportion of Indians than Egyptians are searching for jobs and setting up homes in places their parents would never have. That over five billion railway tickets are sold every year in India gives us a measure of a society on the move. With every horizontal step, either from village to town, or from farm to non-farm employment, new ambitions and expectations are released. In this process, frustrations get an outlet and the current state of deprivation does not look so bad.<br /><br />In contrast, Egypt seems to be standing still. It is better off, it is healthier, but is not moving. When both vertical and horizontal movements are blocked off, life appears much darker. On an average, Egyptians are certainly less deprived than Indians, but it is always relative deprivation that loosens public anger. Egypt's rural population has been stagnant at about 56% for several decades, whereas in India it has fallen from approximately 80% in the 1960s to about 69% today. This has sent millions out of villages in search of jobs in all kinds of production sectors, wherever. The scope for employment in household industries has grown as a consequence, giving hope to many that their future outside agriculture might be brighter.<br /><br />Though the organised sector employs only 27 million, it is the informal sector that soaks in the rural exodus in India. Egypt seems to have fallen short on this front. Paradoxically, the informal sector, the object of so much vilification in our country, has actually kept our streets from erupting, Cairo style.<br /><br />In Egypt, the informal sector has not quite risen to the occasion. A staggering 31% of its labour force may be in the public sector, but its unemployment levels continue to grow. Unfortunately, at this crucial juncture, its informal sector has also weakened. It is no longer able to blot up the excess labour as it used to. Instead, its share of private non-agricultural employment has fallen from 74% in 1998 to 69% in 2006.<br /><br />On the other hand, self-employment has soared in the poorest parts of India, like Rajasthan (70%), UP (69%) or Bihar (61%). Quite against the trend in Egypt, the proportion of non-agricultural units in India that employ less than 10 people has jumped dramatically by 110% between 1985 and 2005. So what if main workers are down in the last census by less than 1%, marginal workers are up by 11%. In India, the poor are moving from poverty to poverty, but with each horizontal move, a little hope bubbles up in their lives.<br /><br />We are lucky in yet another way, and this again comes up from somewhat unexpected quarters. The feminisation of informal labour has also given hope to a lot of poor families. They have found jobs in garment industries and in other household units. Even in the organised sector, the recent increase of over a million workers is primarily on account of women joining the workforce. In Egypt, women's contribution in this regard is much less, and this again boxes in families. To keep them off the streets they must hope tomorrow might be different from today.<br /><br />The informal sector, however, has limited potential for absorbing anger, or releasing hope. Our educated work force is growing and with it will come the demand for proper salaried jobs. Egypt is not yet our future, but we can get a glimpse of it if we look at it closely from afar. So many of the rioters in Cairo are educated, but without employment; 46% of Egypt is below 20 years of age, our figures are quite close to that already. Again, like Cairo and Alexandria, most of the urban growth in India is happening in metros like Delhi or Mumbai.<br /><br />India is not Egypt, but how long can we keep our balance on banana skins?<br /><br /><em>The writer is former professor, JNU. </em><br /></div>
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<br><a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/The-tenacity-of-hope/articleshow/7437527.cms" class="re" target="_blank">The Times of India, 7 February, 2011, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/The-tenacity-of-hope/articleshow/7437527.cms</a><div class="clear"></div>
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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The tenacity of hope by Dipankar Gupta </title>
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Since Cairo took to the streets, there is one question that comes up repeatedly in India. How have we been saved from such anarchy, in spite of our faltering democracy? True, Egypt's growth, between 5% and 7%, has been less..."/>
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Since Cairo took to the streets, there is one question that comes up repeatedly in India. How have we been saved from such anarchy, in spite of our faltering democracy? True, Egypt's growth, between 5% and 7%, has been less..." />
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<h1 class="cat-box-title">The tenacity of hope by Dipankar Gupta</h1>
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Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Feb 8, 2011</span>
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<br /><div align="justify">Since Cairo took to the streets, there is one question that comes up repeatedly in India. How have we been saved from such anarchy, in spite of our faltering democracy? True, Egypt's growth, between 5% and 7%, has been less spectacular than ours. But its per capita income swelled from $587 in 1981 to $1461 in 2001. Even its deficit as a percentage of GDP has fallen from 10.2% in 2002 to 7.9% in 2010. Its poverty figures are much lower than ours, given that per capita monthly income in Egypt is approximately $130.<br /><br />So, we return to the original question: why not here? First, we must thank democracy. It may be ineffective and non-performing, but it allows for oppositional voice. Our political elite is spread out in different parties and in different states and express diverse views.<br /><br />This contrasts with a banana republic where the ruling coterie hangs together. Every group member knows that together they are like a bunch of bananas; if you break free, you get skinned. By contrast, India is probably a banana-peel republic: our rulers are all over the place, slipping and sliding, from post to post, promise to promise.<br /><br />Let us look elsewhere for other differences, and they are not insignificant. True, growth in India may not have brought development and vertical mobility, what with between 40%-50% below the poverty line, but it has compensated for that with enormous horizontal mobility. This has taken a huge pressure off the cooker.<br /><br />A far, far greater proportion of Indians than Egyptians are searching for jobs and setting up homes in places their parents would never have. That over five billion railway tickets are sold every year in India gives us a measure of a society on the move. With every horizontal step, either from village to town, or from farm to non-farm employment, new ambitions and expectations are released. In this process, frustrations get an outlet and the current state of deprivation does not look so bad.<br /><br />In contrast, Egypt seems to be standing still. It is better off, it is healthier, but is not moving. When both vertical and horizontal movements are blocked off, life appears much darker. On an average, Egyptians are certainly less deprived than Indians, but it is always relative deprivation that loosens public anger. Egypt's rural population has been stagnant at about 56% for several decades, whereas in India it has fallen from approximately 80% in the 1960s to about 69% today. This has sent millions out of villages in search of jobs in all kinds of production sectors, wherever. The scope for employment in household industries has grown as a consequence, giving hope to many that their future outside agriculture might be brighter.<br /><br />Though the organised sector employs only 27 million, it is the informal sector that soaks in the rural exodus in India. Egypt seems to have fallen short on this front. Paradoxically, the informal sector, the object of so much vilification in our country, has actually kept our streets from erupting, Cairo style.<br /><br />In Egypt, the informal sector has not quite risen to the occasion. A staggering 31% of its labour force may be in the public sector, but its unemployment levels continue to grow. Unfortunately, at this crucial juncture, its informal sector has also weakened. It is no longer able to blot up the excess labour as it used to. Instead, its share of private non-agricultural employment has fallen from 74% in 1998 to 69% in 2006.<br /><br />On the other hand, self-employment has soared in the poorest parts of India, like Rajasthan (70%), UP (69%) or Bihar (61%). Quite against the trend in Egypt, the proportion of non-agricultural units in India that employ less than 10 people has jumped dramatically by 110% between 1985 and 2005. So what if main workers are down in the last census by less than 1%, marginal workers are up by 11%. In India, the poor are moving from poverty to poverty, but with each horizontal move, a little hope bubbles up in their lives.<br /><br />We are lucky in yet another way, and this again comes up from somewhat unexpected quarters. The feminisation of informal labour has also given hope to a lot of poor families. They have found jobs in garment industries and in other household units. Even in the organised sector, the recent increase of over a million workers is primarily on account of women joining the workforce. In Egypt, women's contribution in this regard is much less, and this again boxes in families. To keep them off the streets they must hope tomorrow might be different from today.<br /><br />The informal sector, however, has limited potential for absorbing anger, or releasing hope. Our educated work force is growing and with it will come the demand for proper salaried jobs. Egypt is not yet our future, but we can get a glimpse of it if we look at it closely from afar. So many of the rioters in Cairo are educated, but without employment; 46% of Egypt is below 20 years of age, our figures are quite close to that already. Again, like Cairo and Alexandria, most of the urban growth in India is happening in metros like Delhi or Mumbai.<br /><br />India is not Egypt, but how long can we keep our balance on banana skins?<br /><br /><em>The writer is former professor, JNU. </em><br /></div>
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<br><a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/The-tenacity-of-hope/articleshow/7437527.cms" class="re" target="_blank">The Times of India, 7 February, 2011, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/The-tenacity-of-hope/articleshow/7437527.cms</a><div class="clear"></div>
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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The tenacity of hope by Dipankar Gupta
Since Cairo took to the streets, there is one question that comes up repeatedly in India. How have we been saved from such anarchy, in spite of our faltering democracy? True, Egypt's growth, between 5% and 7%, has been less spectacular than ours. But its per capita income swelled from $587 in 1981 to $1461 in 2001. Even its deficit as a percentage of GDP has fallen from 10.2% in 2002 to 7.9% in 2010. Its poverty figures are much lower than ours, given that per capita monthly income in Egypt is approximately $130.
So, we return to the original question: why not here? First, we must thank democracy. It may be ineffective and non-performing, but it allows for oppositional voice. Our political elite is spread out in different parties and in different states and express diverse views.
This contrasts with a banana republic where the ruling coterie hangs together. Every group member knows that together they are like a bunch of bananas; if you break free, you get skinned. By contrast, India is probably a banana-peel republic: our rulers are all over the place, slipping and sliding, from post to post, promise to promise.
Let us look elsewhere for other differences, and they are not insignificant. True, growth in India may not have brought development and vertical mobility, what with between 40%-50% below the poverty line, but it has compensated for that with enormous horizontal mobility. This has taken a huge pressure off the cooker.
A far, far greater proportion of Indians than Egyptians are searching for jobs and setting up homes in places their parents would never have. That over five billion railway tickets are sold every year in India gives us a measure of a society on the move. With every horizontal step, either from village to town, or from farm to non-farm employment, new ambitions and expectations are released. In this process, frustrations get an outlet and the current state of deprivation does not look so bad.
In contrast, Egypt seems to be standing still. It is better off, it is healthier, but is not moving. When both vertical and horizontal movements are blocked off, life appears much darker. On an average, Egyptians are certainly less deprived than Indians, but it is always relative deprivation that loosens public anger. Egypt's rural population has been stagnant at about 56% for several decades, whereas in India it has fallen from approximately 80% in the 1960s to about 69% today. This has sent millions out of villages in search of jobs in all kinds of production sectors, wherever. The scope for employment in household industries has grown as a consequence, giving hope to many that their future outside agriculture might be brighter.
Though the organised sector employs only 27 million, it is the informal sector that soaks in the rural exodus in India. Egypt seems to have fallen short on this front. Paradoxically, the informal sector, the object of so much vilification in our country, has actually kept our streets from erupting, Cairo style.
In Egypt, the informal sector has not quite risen to the occasion. A staggering 31% of its labour force may be in the public sector, but its unemployment levels continue to grow. Unfortunately, at this crucial juncture, its informal sector has also weakened. It is no longer able to blot up the excess labour as it used to. Instead, its share of private non-agricultural employment has fallen from 74% in 1998 to 69% in 2006.
On the other hand, self-employment has soared in the poorest parts of India, like Rajasthan (70%), UP (69%) or Bihar (61%). Quite against the trend in Egypt, the proportion of non-agricultural units in India that employ less than 10 people has jumped dramatically by 110% between 1985 and 2005. So what if main workers are down in the last census by less than 1%, marginal workers are up by 11%. In India, the poor are moving from poverty to poverty, but with each horizontal move, a little hope bubbles up in their lives.
We are lucky in yet another way, and this again comes up from somewhat unexpected quarters. The feminisation of informal labour has also given hope to a lot of poor families. They have found jobs in garment industries and in other household units. Even in the organised sector, the recent increase of over a million workers is primarily on account of women joining the workforce. In Egypt, women's contribution in this regard is much less, and this again boxes in families. To keep them off the streets they must hope tomorrow might be different from today.
The informal sector, however, has limited potential for absorbing anger, or releasing hope. Our educated work force is growing and with it will come the demand for proper salaried jobs. Egypt is not yet our future, but we can get a glimpse of it if we look at it closely from afar. So many of the rioters in Cairo are educated, but without employment; 46% of Egypt is below 20 years of age, our figures are quite close to that already. Again, like Cairo and Alexandria, most of the urban growth in India is happening in metros like Delhi or Mumbai.
India is not Egypt, but how long can we keep our balance on banana skins?
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