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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Trajectory of distress: From farm to factory </title>
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Two apparently unrelated events — a sharp fall in factory output growth and a spike in consumer price inflation —point to deep problems underlying the economy.
September industry growth fell to 3.6%, the lowest in four months. Meanwhile,..."/>
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Two apparently unrelated events — a sharp fall in factory output growth and a spike in consumer price inflation —point to deep problems underlying the economy.
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<h1 class="cat-box-title">Trajectory of distress: From farm to factory</h1>
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Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Nov 14, 2015</span>
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<div align="justify">-The Economic Times Blog<br /><br />Two apparently unrelated events — a sharp fall in factory output growth and a spike in consumer price inflation —point to deep problems underlying the economy.<br /><br />September industry growth fell to 3.6%, the lowest in four months. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) went up to 5% in October, higher than the consensus estimate of 4.8%, headed north for the third successive month.<br /><br />The rise in prices is driven mainly by food, following two successive years of poor monsoons. The prices of lentils have stayed high for months: the government is clueless about what to do to bring down the price of the country’s most-widely consumed source of protein. And if dal is stubbornly out of reach for the poor, growers of vegetables like potatoes and tomatoes are faced with a glut and a collapse in income.<br /><br />North and west India are in the throes of a large-scale agrarian crisis. Decades of neglect and underinvestment have destroyed irrigation networks, check dams and traditional water storage systems like ponds and wells.<br /><br />So, when rainfall is patchy and policy turns a blind eye, crop failures and farm distress are inevitable. Punjab is seething because farmers perceive support prices for paddy to be too low and a pest has wiped out its cotton crop. Madhya Pradesh soyabean cultivators have been hit hard.<br /><br />The winter harvest is likely to be patchy. BofA-Merrill Lynch estimates that kharif incomes dropped near-6% last year and are set to drop another 3% this season. Meanwhile, New Delhi has sharply cut back on funding the NREGA programme, leaving no safety net.<br /><br />Farm distress comes back to bite factories: the fall in rural purchasing power has dented sales of FMCG companies, tractors and two-wheelers, fertilisers and so on.<br /><br />These have had a cascading effect on corporate revenue and earnings growth — even sectors like capital goods have not been spared. Listed blue chips are down 14% from one-year highs.<br /><br />India might no longer live only in its villages, but what hurts rurban India causes pain across the economy. The government must realise this, and act immediately, both on the farm, and on infrastructure.</div>
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<br><a href="http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-editorials/trajectory-of-distress-from-farm-to-factory/?_ga=1.192621738.1869759413.1445880424" class="re" target="_blank">The Economic Times, 14 November, 2015, http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-editorials/trajectory-of-distress-from-farm-to-factory/?_ga=1.192621738.1869759413.1445880424</a><div class="clear"></div>
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<h1 class="cat-box-title">Trajectory of distress: From farm to factory</h1>
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Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Nov 14, 2015</span>
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<div align="justify">-The Economic Times Blog<br /><br />Two apparently unrelated events — a sharp fall in factory output growth and a spike in consumer price inflation —point to deep problems underlying the economy.<br /><br />September industry growth fell to 3.6%, the lowest in four months. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) went up to 5% in October, higher than the consensus estimate of 4.8%, headed north for the third successive month.<br /><br />The rise in prices is driven mainly by food, following two successive years of poor monsoons. The prices of lentils have stayed high for months: the government is clueless about what to do to bring down the price of the country’s most-widely consumed source of protein. And if dal is stubbornly out of reach for the poor, growers of vegetables like potatoes and tomatoes are faced with a glut and a collapse in income.<br /><br />North and west India are in the throes of a large-scale agrarian crisis. Decades of neglect and underinvestment have destroyed irrigation networks, check dams and traditional water storage systems like ponds and wells.<br /><br />So, when rainfall is patchy and policy turns a blind eye, crop failures and farm distress are inevitable. Punjab is seething because farmers perceive support prices for paddy to be too low and a pest has wiped out its cotton crop. Madhya Pradesh soyabean cultivators have been hit hard.<br /><br />The winter harvest is likely to be patchy. BofA-Merrill Lynch estimates that kharif incomes dropped near-6% last year and are set to drop another 3% this season. Meanwhile, New Delhi has sharply cut back on funding the NREGA programme, leaving no safety net.<br /><br />Farm distress comes back to bite factories: the fall in rural purchasing power has dented sales of FMCG companies, tractors and two-wheelers, fertilisers and so on.<br /><br />These have had a cascading effect on corporate revenue and earnings growth — even sectors like capital goods have not been spared. Listed blue chips are down 14% from one-year highs.<br /><br />India might no longer live only in its villages, but what hurts rurban India causes pain across the economy. The government must realise this, and act immediately, both on the farm, and on infrastructure.</div>
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<br><a href="http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-editorials/trajectory-of-distress-from-farm-to-factory/?_ga=1.192621738.1869759413.1445880424" class="re" target="_blank">The Economic Times, 14 November, 2015, http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-editorials/trajectory-of-distress-from-farm-to-factory/?_ga=1.192621738.1869759413.1445880424</a><div class="clear"></div>
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<h3><b>Farm Crisis</b></h3>
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<h1 class="cat-box-title">Trajectory of distress: From farm to factory</h1>
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Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Nov 14, 2015</span>
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<div align="justify">-The Economic Times Blog<br /><br />Two apparently unrelated events — a sharp fall in factory output growth and a spike in consumer price inflation —point to deep problems underlying the economy.<br /><br />September industry growth fell to 3.6%, the lowest in four months. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) went up to 5% in October, higher than the consensus estimate of 4.8%, headed north for the third successive month.<br /><br />The rise in prices is driven mainly by food, following two successive years of poor monsoons. The prices of lentils have stayed high for months: the government is clueless about what to do to bring down the price of the country’s most-widely consumed source of protein. And if dal is stubbornly out of reach for the poor, growers of vegetables like potatoes and tomatoes are faced with a glut and a collapse in income.<br /><br />North and west India are in the throes of a large-scale agrarian crisis. Decades of neglect and underinvestment have destroyed irrigation networks, check dams and traditional water storage systems like ponds and wells.<br /><br />So, when rainfall is patchy and policy turns a blind eye, crop failures and farm distress are inevitable. Punjab is seething because farmers perceive support prices for paddy to be too low and a pest has wiped out its cotton crop. Madhya Pradesh soyabean cultivators have been hit hard.<br /><br />The winter harvest is likely to be patchy. BofA-Merrill Lynch estimates that kharif incomes dropped near-6% last year and are set to drop another 3% this season. Meanwhile, New Delhi has sharply cut back on funding the NREGA programme, leaving no safety net.<br /><br />Farm distress comes back to bite factories: the fall in rural purchasing power has dented sales of FMCG companies, tractors and two-wheelers, fertilisers and so on.<br /><br />These have had a cascading effect on corporate revenue and earnings growth — even sectors like capital goods have not been spared. Listed blue chips are down 14% from one-year highs.<br /><br />India might no longer live only in its villages, but what hurts rurban India causes pain across the economy. The government must realise this, and act immediately, both on the farm, and on infrastructure.</div>
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<br><a href="http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-editorials/trajectory-of-distress-from-farm-to-factory/?_ga=1.192621738.1869759413.1445880424" class="re" target="_blank">The Economic Times, 14 November, 2015, http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-editorials/trajectory-of-distress-from-farm-to-factory/?_ga=1.192621738.1869759413.1445880424</a><div class="clear"></div>
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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Trajectory of distress: From farm to factory
Published on Nov 14, 2015
Modified on Nov 14, 2015
-The Economic Times Blog
Two apparently unrelated events — a sharp fall in factory output growth and a spike in consumer price inflation —point to deep problems underlying the economy.
September industry growth fell to 3.6%, the lowest in four months. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) went up to 5% in October, higher than the consensus estimate of 4.8%, headed north for the third successive month.
The rise in prices is driven mainly by food, following two successive years of poor monsoons. The prices of lentils have stayed high for months: the government is clueless about what to do to bring down the price of the country’s most-widely consumed source of protein. And if dal is stubbornly out of reach for the poor, growers of vegetables like potatoes and tomatoes are faced with a glut and a collapse in income.
North and west India are in the throes of a large-scale agrarian crisis. Decades of neglect and underinvestment have destroyed irrigation networks, check dams and traditional water storage systems like ponds and wells.
So, when rainfall is patchy and policy turns a blind eye, crop failures and farm distress are inevitable. Punjab is seething because farmers perceive support prices for paddy to be too low and a pest has wiped out its cotton crop. Madhya Pradesh soyabean cultivators have been hit hard.
The winter harvest is likely to be patchy. BofA-Merrill Lynch estimates that kharif incomes dropped near-6% last year and are set to drop another 3% this season. Meanwhile, New Delhi has sharply cut back on funding the NREGA programme, leaving no safety net.
Farm distress comes back to bite factories: the fall in rural purchasing power has dented sales of FMCG companies, tractors and two-wheelers, fertilisers and so on.
These have had a cascading effect on corporate revenue and earnings growth — even sectors like capital goods have not been spared. Listed blue chips are down 14% from one-year highs.
India might no longer live only in its villages, but what hurts rurban India causes pain across the economy. The government must realise this, and act immediately, both on the farm, and on infrastructure.
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