Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Turning the corner -Ajit Ranade    </title>
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-The Hindu

The next few quarters call for focus on consumption, private investment, agriculture and exports

There was a collective sigh of relief when the second quarter GDP data were released officially by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The government folks were..."/>
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-The Hindu

The next few quarters call for focus on consumption, private investment, agriculture and exports

There was a collective sigh of relief when the second quarter GDP data were released officially by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The government folks were..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>The next few quarters call for focus on consumption, private investment, agriculture and exports<br /></em><br />There was a collective sigh of relief when the second quarter GDP data were released officially by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The government folks were relieved that a declining trend of four consecutive quarters of growth had finally been reversed.<br /><br />The forecasters and economists were relieved that the announced data had mostly conformed to their expectations. Industry and business people were now hopeful that this was the first instance of a sustained upward trajectory of growth. GDP growth came at 6.3% for the quarter ending September, higher than 5.7% in the previous quarter, but still lower than 7.5% a year ago. The Finance Minister said that the effects of the demonetisation and initial rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) were behind us. (In saying so, he implicitly endorsed the view that indeed demonetisation and the GST rollout had been negative for the GDP, at least in the short run. But this is not the occasion for such minor nitpicking!)<br /><br /><em>Devil&rsquo;s in the detail<br /></em><br />All these responses of being assured that we had turned a corner are justified if we see some of the positive details from the GDP data. For instance, industrial growth accelerated from 1.6% during the June quarter to 5.8% in this September quarter. Its subcomponent, manufacturing, too grew faster at 7% compared to only 1.2% during the previous quarter. This data is a bit puzzling since it seems inconsistent with the data on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), whose growth is only 2.2% during this quarter. The services component of trade, hotels, transport and communications also grew smartly at 10.5% for the half year, as compared to 8.3% a year ago. So much for the good news.<br /><br />Industrial revival is an absolute must for sustained growth in employment and output. It should also be accompanied by an increase in private sector investment, which is still lacklustre. The portion of GDP growth coming from fixed capital formation (which stands for investment activity) declined from 27.5% in the first quarter to 26.4% now. This has to be closely watched, and needs high policy priority. All the improvements in the Ease of Doing Business (EODB) ranking are meaningless unless we see substantial pick-up in private sector investment. More about this later.<br /><br />There was one more silver lining in the data. The CSO says that GST collections data are provisional, and could be an underestimate. To that extent an upward revision of the GDP data is possible in the future.<br /><br />So if the GDP trend is satisfactory, why did the stock market react so negatively? It is of course hazardous to impute motives to the stock marker index movements, since there are multiple influences, both domestic and global. Several caveats are in order. The stock market has been scaling new peaks, even though GDP growth had been declining. The stock market is always a forward-looking entity, a harbinger of things to come. Whereas the GDP data released by the government describe what happened two or three months ago. The stock market is swayed by a relatively small minority of deep pocket investors (and increasingly algorithms and bots), so its reaction is not representative of what&rsquo;s happening to the broad-based economy. Even so, despite these caveats, it&rsquo;s useful to pay heed.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 2 December, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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The next few quarters call for focus on consumption, private investment, agriculture and exports

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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Turning the corner -Ajit Ranade</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>The next few quarters call for focus on consumption, private investment, agriculture and exports<br /></em><br />There was a collective sigh of relief when the second quarter GDP data were released officially by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The government folks were relieved that a declining trend of four consecutive quarters of growth had finally been reversed.<br /><br />The forecasters and economists were relieved that the announced data had mostly conformed to their expectations. Industry and business people were now hopeful that this was the first instance of a sustained upward trajectory of growth. GDP growth came at 6.3% for the quarter ending September, higher than 5.7% in the previous quarter, but still lower than 7.5% a year ago. The Finance Minister said that the effects of the demonetisation and initial rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) were behind us. (In saying so, he implicitly endorsed the view that indeed demonetisation and the GST rollout had been negative for the GDP, at least in the short run. But this is not the occasion for such minor nitpicking!)<br /><br /><em>Devil&rsquo;s in the detail<br /></em><br />All these responses of being assured that we had turned a corner are justified if we see some of the positive details from the GDP data. For instance, industrial growth accelerated from 1.6% during the June quarter to 5.8% in this September quarter. Its subcomponent, manufacturing, too grew faster at 7% compared to only 1.2% during the previous quarter. This data is a bit puzzling since it seems inconsistent with the data on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), whose growth is only 2.2% during this quarter. The services component of trade, hotels, transport and communications also grew smartly at 10.5% for the half year, as compared to 8.3% a year ago. So much for the good news.<br /><br />Industrial revival is an absolute must for sustained growth in employment and output. It should also be accompanied by an increase in private sector investment, which is still lacklustre. The portion of GDP growth coming from fixed capital formation (which stands for investment activity) declined from 27.5% in the first quarter to 26.4% now. This has to be closely watched, and needs high policy priority. All the improvements in the Ease of Doing Business (EODB) ranking are meaningless unless we see substantial pick-up in private sector investment. More about this later.<br /><br />There was one more silver lining in the data. The CSO says that GST collections data are provisional, and could be an underestimate. To that extent an upward revision of the GDP data is possible in the future.<br /><br />So if the GDP trend is satisfactory, why did the stock market react so negatively? It is of course hazardous to impute motives to the stock marker index movements, since there are multiple influences, both domestic and global. Several caveats are in order. The stock market has been scaling new peaks, even though GDP growth had been declining. The stock market is always a forward-looking entity, a harbinger of things to come. Whereas the GDP data released by the government describe what happened two or three months ago. The stock market is swayed by a relatively small minority of deep pocket investors (and increasingly algorithms and bots), so its reaction is not representative of what&rsquo;s happening to the broad-based economy. Even so, despite these caveats, it&rsquo;s useful to pay heed.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 2 December, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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The next few quarters call for focus on consumption, private investment, agriculture and exports

There was a collective sigh of relief when the second quarter GDP data were released officially by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The government folks were..." />
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Turning the corner -Ajit Ranade</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>The next few quarters call for focus on consumption, private investment, agriculture and exports<br /></em><br />There was a collective sigh of relief when the second quarter GDP data were released officially by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The government folks were relieved that a declining trend of four consecutive quarters of growth had finally been reversed.<br /><br />The forecasters and economists were relieved that the announced data had mostly conformed to their expectations. Industry and business people were now hopeful that this was the first instance of a sustained upward trajectory of growth. GDP growth came at 6.3% for the quarter ending September, higher than 5.7% in the previous quarter, but still lower than 7.5% a year ago. The Finance Minister said that the effects of the demonetisation and initial rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) were behind us. (In saying so, he implicitly endorsed the view that indeed demonetisation and the GST rollout had been negative for the GDP, at least in the short run. But this is not the occasion for such minor nitpicking!)<br /><br /><em>Devil&rsquo;s in the detail<br /></em><br />All these responses of being assured that we had turned a corner are justified if we see some of the positive details from the GDP data. For instance, industrial growth accelerated from 1.6% during the June quarter to 5.8% in this September quarter. Its subcomponent, manufacturing, too grew faster at 7% compared to only 1.2% during the previous quarter. This data is a bit puzzling since it seems inconsistent with the data on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), whose growth is only 2.2% during this quarter. The services component of trade, hotels, transport and communications also grew smartly at 10.5% for the half year, as compared to 8.3% a year ago. So much for the good news.<br /><br />Industrial revival is an absolute must for sustained growth in employment and output. It should also be accompanied by an increase in private sector investment, which is still lacklustre. The portion of GDP growth coming from fixed capital formation (which stands for investment activity) declined from 27.5% in the first quarter to 26.4% now. This has to be closely watched, and needs high policy priority. All the improvements in the Ease of Doing Business (EODB) ranking are meaningless unless we see substantial pick-up in private sector investment. More about this later.<br /><br />There was one more silver lining in the data. The CSO says that GST collections data are provisional, and could be an underestimate. To that extent an upward revision of the GDP data is possible in the future.<br /><br />So if the GDP trend is satisfactory, why did the stock market react so negatively? It is of course hazardous to impute motives to the stock marker index movements, since there are multiple influences, both domestic and global. Several caveats are in order. The stock market has been scaling new peaks, even though GDP growth had been declining. The stock market is always a forward-looking entity, a harbinger of things to come. Whereas the GDP data released by the government describe what happened two or three months ago. The stock market is swayed by a relatively small minority of deep pocket investors (and increasingly algorithms and bots), so its reaction is not representative of what&rsquo;s happening to the broad-based economy. Even so, despite these caveats, it&rsquo;s useful to pay heed.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 2 December, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Turning the corner -Ajit Ranade

Published on Dec 2, 2017   Modified on Dec 2, 2017

-The Hindu The next few quarters call for focus on consumption, private investment, agriculture and exports There was a collective sigh of relief when the second quarter GDP data were released officially by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The government folks were relieved that a declining trend of four consecutive quarters of growth had finally been reversed. The forecasters and economists were relieved that the announced data had mostly conformed to their expectations. Industry and business people were now hopeful that this was the first instance of a sustained upward trajectory of growth. GDP growth came at 6.3% for the quarter ending September, higher than 5.7% in the previous quarter, but still lower than 7.5% a year ago. The Finance Minister said that the effects of the demonetisation and initial rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) were behind us. (In saying so, he implicitly endorsed the view that indeed demonetisation and the GST rollout had been negative for the GDP, at least in the short run. But this is not the occasion for such minor nitpicking!) Devil’s in the detail All these responses of being assured that we had turned a corner are justified if we see some of the positive details from the GDP data. For instance, industrial growth accelerated from 1.6% during the June quarter to 5.8% in this September quarter. Its subcomponent, manufacturing, too grew faster at 7% compared to only 1.2% during the previous quarter. This data is a bit puzzling since it seems inconsistent with the data on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), whose growth is only 2.2% during this quarter. The services component of trade, hotels, transport and communications also grew smartly at 10.5% for the half year, as compared to 8.3% a year ago. So much for the good news. Industrial revival is an absolute must for sustained growth in employment and output. It should also be accompanied by an increase in private sector investment, which is still lacklustre. The portion of GDP growth coming from fixed capital formation (which stands for investment activity) declined from 27.5% in the first quarter to 26.4% now. This has to be closely watched, and needs high policy priority. All the improvements in the Ease of Doing Business (EODB) ranking are meaningless unless we see substantial pick-up in private sector investment. More about this later. There was one more silver lining in the data. The CSO says that GST collections data are provisional, and could be an underestimate. To that extent an upward revision of the GDP data is possible in the future. So if the GDP trend is satisfactory, why did the stock market react so negatively? It is of course hazardous to impute motives to the stock marker index movements, since there are multiple influences, both domestic and global. Several caveats are in order. The stock market has been scaling new peaks, even though GDP growth had been declining. The stock market is always a forward-looking entity, a harbinger of things to come. Whereas the GDP data released by the government describe what happened two or three months ago. The stock market is swayed by a relatively small minority of deep pocket investors (and increasingly algorithms and bots), so its reaction is not representative of what’s happening to the broad-based economy. Even so, despite these caveats, it’s useful to pay heed. Please click here to read more.

The Hindu, 2 December, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/turning-the-corner-focus-on-growth-in-the-next-few-quarters/article21244427.ece?homepage=true

Tagged with: GDP growth GDP growth rate Economic Growth industrial growth Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

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