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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | UN Climate Change Negotiations 2012: Drought looms as India faces rain deficit- Urmi A Goswami

UN Climate Change Negotiations 2012: Drought looms as India faces rain deficit- Urmi A Goswami

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published Published on Dec 5, 2012   modified Modified on Dec 5, 2012
-The Economic Times

DOHA: India faces the risk of devastating drought as monsoon rains are likely to have a shortfall of 70% in the years ahead, as climate change shakes up global weather phenomena, recent research and experts at a global conference said.

The risk of adverse changes in global weather is aggravated by the fact that international efforts to act against climate change have been blocked by deep divisions among the 200 countries negotiating at the UN-sponsored climate talks at Doha. Developing countries want more funds and firm commitments from industrialised nations to cut emissions.

Narrowing these differences at the conference is important to facilitate a new global treaty to tackle global warming. Experts say research suggests that changing climate has already upset rural livelihoods, while Indian scientists say the country has already faced adverse weather phenomena.

The monsoon has regularly stumped forecasters in the first decade of the 21st century, during which the country faced the driest June in 100 years, the worst drought in four decades, dryness in the usually rainy northeastern region, heavy downpours in the Rajasthan desert and frequent month-long delays in monsoon withdrawal. The poor are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

A research project, 'Where the Rain Falls', by CARE International and the United Nations University finds that migration, particularly of poor people, on account of changing rainfall patterns is on the rise. "Our evidence-based research shows that rural people perceive climate changes happening today in the form of rainfall variability.

The changes in timing, quality, quantity and overall predictability of rainfall affect households' risk management decisions, including migration," said Koko Warner, scientific director of the 'Where the Rain Falls' project from the United Nations University.

Developing countries want more funds and firm commitments from industrialised nations to cut emissions.

Earlier, a study by Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research published in November cautioned governments that the monsoon may fail every fifth year in the decades ahead unless there is decisive action to combat climate change.

And, even as the Schewe-Levermann study predicts a dire future, the changing rainfall patterns, on account ofglobal warming, is already being felt in developing countries like India, research shows. In India, the researchers conducted household surveys in Janjgir-Champa district in Chhattisgarh.

Residents of the four surveyed villages of Jullan Pakaria, Akalteri, Banahil and Silli are heavily dependent on the production of a single annual crop of paddy rice grown during the monsoon season. The projected failure of monsoons predicted by the Potsdam study projects a situation in which the villagers of the area would be pushed further into poverty.

Though many farmers have access to canal irrigation, food insecurity in the region remains high. Changes in rainfall pattern affect water supply, making a second crop difficult. As a result, local farmers appear to have largely abandoned the production of pulses and other crops, contributing to high levels of seasonalunemployment, particularly among smallholders and the landless poor.

Despite the social safety nets, migration is one of the most important strategies employed by villagers in this area to cope with rainfall variations/climatic changes and food insecurity. Migration continues to be the last resort for the poor and landless households and, in the long run, it doesn't really help households in combating the effects of climate change, experts said.

The Economic Times, 5 December, 2012, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/un-climate-change-negotiations-2012-drought-looms-as-india-faces-rain-deficit/articleshow/17485592.cm


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