Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
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Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

                trigger_error($message, E_USER_WARNING);

            } else {
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Upward GDP revisions for note ban, GST years surprising, says ex-CEA -Asit Ranjan Mishra</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-Livemint.com<br /><br /><em>* GDP estimates are based on accepted methodologies, says government<br />* Subramanian made the claims in his latest working paper published on the Harvard University website<br /><br />New Delhi: </em>India&rsquo;s statistics ministry likely underestimated the impact of demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) on economic activity, leading to an overestimation of gross domestic product (GDP) figures, the finance ministry&rsquo;s former chief economic adviser, Arvind Subramanian, has said.<br /><br />On 31 January, the statistics ministry had raised its growth estimates for 2016-17, the year of demonetization, to 8.2% from 7.1%, thus making it the year with the fastest economic growth under the previous government. Similarly, data for 2017-18 during which GST was implemented was revised upwards to 7.2% from 6.6% estimated earlier.<br /><br />&ldquo;Earlier this year, there were also substantial upward revisions to estimates for 2016-17 and 2017-18, which seemed surprising given that they were years when the short-term impact of two major policy actions &mdash;demonetization and GST&mdash;would have been most severe,&quot; Subramanian wrote in his latest working paper published on the Harvard University website.<br /><br />In his book Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy released last year, Subramanian had said demonetization dealt a &ldquo;massive, draconian, monetary shock&quot; and hinted he was not consulted on the matter.<br /><br />&ldquo;Real GVA (gross value added) growth for the informal sector are based on and proxied by the IIP (index of industrial production), which is mostly composed of formal sector firms. The informal sector accounts for 30% of manufacturing GVA and hence about 5% of overall GVA. This proxy might be reasonable in normal times. But it likely overestimated growth during a period when major policy actions&mdash;demonetization and GST&mdash;disproportionately impacted the informal sector,&quot; Subramanian wrote in his working paper.<br /><br />&ldquo;For example, in 2017 and 2018, IIP manufacturing growth registered positive growth of 3.3% and 5.3%, respectively. But most likely, the informal sector registered negative growth in these years because of demonetization and GST,&quot; he added.<br /><br />Subramanian said the back-series GDP data produced in December 2018 revised downwards previous estimates of GDP growth for the period of the UPA government. &ldquo;Today, these changes are being seen as political because of other controversies that have arisen that, in principle, must be distinguished from the methodological change,&quot; he added.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/upward-gdp-revisions-for-note-ban-gst-years-surprising-says-ex-cea-1560277549962.html" title="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/upward-gdp-revisions-for-note-ban-gst-years-surprising-says-ex-cea-1560277549962.html">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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                            <div align="justify">-Livemint.com<br /><br /><em>* GDP estimates are based on accepted methodologies, says government<br />* Subramanian made the claims in his latest working paper published on the Harvard University website<br /><br />New Delhi: </em>India&rsquo;s statistics ministry likely underestimated the impact of demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) on economic activity, leading to an overestimation of gross domestic product (GDP) figures, the finance ministry&rsquo;s former chief economic adviser, Arvind Subramanian, has said.<br /><br />On 31 January, the statistics ministry had raised its growth estimates for 2016-17, the year of demonetization, to 8.2% from 7.1%, thus making it the year with the fastest economic growth under the previous government. Similarly, data for 2017-18 during which GST was implemented was revised upwards to 7.2% from 6.6% estimated earlier.<br /><br />&ldquo;Earlier this year, there were also substantial upward revisions to estimates for 2016-17 and 2017-18, which seemed surprising given that they were years when the short-term impact of two major policy actions &mdash;demonetization and GST&mdash;would have been most severe,&quot; Subramanian wrote in his latest working paper published on the Harvard University website.<br /><br />In his book Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy released last year, Subramanian had said demonetization dealt a &ldquo;massive, draconian, monetary shock&quot; and hinted he was not consulted on the matter.<br /><br />&ldquo;Real GVA (gross value added) growth for the informal sector are based on and proxied by the IIP (index of industrial production), which is mostly composed of formal sector firms. The informal sector accounts for 30% of manufacturing GVA and hence about 5% of overall GVA. This proxy might be reasonable in normal times. But it likely overestimated growth during a period when major policy actions&mdash;demonetization and GST&mdash;disproportionately impacted the informal sector,&quot; Subramanian wrote in his working paper.<br /><br />&ldquo;For example, in 2017 and 2018, IIP manufacturing growth registered positive growth of 3.3% and 5.3%, respectively. But most likely, the informal sector registered negative growth in these years because of demonetization and GST,&quot; he added.<br /><br />Subramanian said the back-series GDP data produced in December 2018 revised downwards previous estimates of GDP growth for the period of the UPA government. &ldquo;Today, these changes are being seen as political because of other controversies that have arisen that, in principle, must be distinguished from the methodological change,&quot; he added.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/upward-gdp-revisions-for-note-ban-gst-years-surprising-says-ex-cea-1560277549962.html" title="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/upward-gdp-revisions-for-note-ban-gst-years-surprising-says-ex-cea-1560277549962.html">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Upward GDP revisions for note ban, GST years surprising, says ex-CEA -Asit Ranjan Mishra</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-Livemint.com<br /><br /><em>* GDP estimates are based on accepted methodologies, says government<br />* Subramanian made the claims in his latest working paper published on the Harvard University website<br /><br />New Delhi: </em>India&rsquo;s statistics ministry likely underestimated the impact of demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) on economic activity, leading to an overestimation of gross domestic product (GDP) figures, the finance ministry&rsquo;s former chief economic adviser, Arvind Subramanian, has said.<br /><br />On 31 January, the statistics ministry had raised its growth estimates for 2016-17, the year of demonetization, to 8.2% from 7.1%, thus making it the year with the fastest economic growth under the previous government. Similarly, data for 2017-18 during which GST was implemented was revised upwards to 7.2% from 6.6% estimated earlier.<br /><br />&ldquo;Earlier this year, there were also substantial upward revisions to estimates for 2016-17 and 2017-18, which seemed surprising given that they were years when the short-term impact of two major policy actions &mdash;demonetization and GST&mdash;would have been most severe,&quot; Subramanian wrote in his latest working paper published on the Harvard University website.<br /><br />In his book Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy released last year, Subramanian had said demonetization dealt a &ldquo;massive, draconian, monetary shock&quot; and hinted he was not consulted on the matter.<br /><br />&ldquo;Real GVA (gross value added) growth for the informal sector are based on and proxied by the IIP (index of industrial production), which is mostly composed of formal sector firms. The informal sector accounts for 30% of manufacturing GVA and hence about 5% of overall GVA. This proxy might be reasonable in normal times. But it likely overestimated growth during a period when major policy actions&mdash;demonetization and GST&mdash;disproportionately impacted the informal sector,&quot; Subramanian wrote in his working paper.<br /><br />&ldquo;For example, in 2017 and 2018, IIP manufacturing growth registered positive growth of 3.3% and 5.3%, respectively. But most likely, the informal sector registered negative growth in these years because of demonetization and GST,&quot; he added.<br /><br />Subramanian said the back-series GDP data produced in December 2018 revised downwards previous estimates of GDP growth for the period of the UPA government. &ldquo;Today, these changes are being seen as political because of other controversies that have arisen that, in principle, must be distinguished from the methodological change,&quot; he added.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/upward-gdp-revisions-for-note-ban-gst-years-surprising-says-ex-cea-1560277549962.html" title="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/upward-gdp-revisions-for-note-ban-gst-years-surprising-says-ex-cea-1560277549962.html">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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Upward GDP revisions for note ban, GST years surprising, says ex-CEA -Asit Ranjan Mishra

Published on Jun 13, 2019   Modified on Jun 13, 2019

-Livemint.com * GDP estimates are based on accepted methodologies, says government * Subramanian made the claims in his latest working paper published on the Harvard University website New Delhi: India’s statistics ministry likely underestimated the impact of demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) on economic activity, leading to an overestimation of gross domestic product (GDP) figures, the finance ministry’s former chief economic adviser, Arvind Subramanian, has said. On 31 January, the statistics ministry had raised its growth estimates for 2016-17, the year of demonetization, to 8.2% from 7.1%, thus making it the year with the fastest economic growth under the previous government. Similarly, data for 2017-18 during which GST was implemented was revised upwards to 7.2% from 6.6% estimated earlier. “Earlier this year, there were also substantial upward revisions to estimates for 2016-17 and 2017-18, which seemed surprising given that they were years when the short-term impact of two major policy actions —demonetization and GST—would have been most severe," Subramanian wrote in his latest working paper published on the Harvard University website. In his book Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy released last year, Subramanian had said demonetization dealt a “massive, draconian, monetary shock" and hinted he was not consulted on the matter. “Real GVA (gross value added) growth for the informal sector are based on and proxied by the IIP (index of industrial production), which is mostly composed of formal sector firms. The informal sector accounts for 30% of manufacturing GVA and hence about 5% of overall GVA. This proxy might be reasonable in normal times. But it likely overestimated growth during a period when major policy actions—demonetization and GST—disproportionately impacted the informal sector," Subramanian wrote in his working paper. “For example, in 2017 and 2018, IIP manufacturing growth registered positive growth of 3.3% and 5.3%, respectively. But most likely, the informal sector registered negative growth in these years because of demonetization and GST," he added. Subramanian said the back-series GDP data produced in December 2018 revised downwards previous estimates of GDP growth for the period of the UPA government. “Today, these changes are being seen as political because of other controversies that have arisen that, in principle, must be distinguished from the methodological change," he added. Please click here to read more.

Livemint.com, 12 June, 2019, https://www.livemint.com/news/india/upward-gdp-revisions-for-note-ban-gst-years-surprising-says-ex-cea-1560277549962.html

Tagged with: GDP 2011-12 series GDP estimates GDP growth

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