Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
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Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Weathering forecasts    </title>
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-The Hindu Business Line



 The IMD should be conferred autonomous status so that it functions along professional lines, without worrying about political correctness.


Given how awry its forecasts in the last couple of years had gone, one can be forgiven for..."/>
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-The Hindu Business Line



 The IMD should be conferred autonomous status so that it functions along professional lines, without worrying about political correctness.


Given how awry its forecasts in the last couple of years had gone, one can be forgiven for..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu Business Line<br /></div><p align="justify"><br /> The IMD should be conferred autonomous status so that it functions along professional lines, without worrying about political correctness.</p><p align="justify">Given how awry its forecasts in the last couple of years had gone, one can be forgiven for being cynical about the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) prognosis of a &lsquo;normal' South-West monsoon this time. The country's official weather agency has predicted nationwide rainfall during the four-month monsoon season ending September to be 98 per cent of the historical long period average, making it &lsquo;normal' in an aggregate sense. In 2011 and 2012, too, it had issued similar relatively optimistic first-stage forecasts, only to revise them downwards later, almost in sync with the rather weak rainfall activity seen during June-July. But even as the IMD's outlook turned progressively gloomier, the monsoon's actual performance registered progressive improvement. Both these years ended up with &lsquo;normal' monsoons, though not quite in the order indicated by the IMD. The latter could neither anticipate the monsoon's very poor initial advance nor its spectacular latter-half recovery.</p><p align="justify">The latest 98 per cent normal monsoon forecast for the country as a whole has limited practical utility, as it doesn't provide any insights into how the projected rainfall would be distributed over the four-month period across different regions. Farmers, for instance, are interested more in how much it will rain in their respective areas during June and July, which are the peak sowing months. The IMD may seek to take refuge in the fact that predicting dynamic ocean-land-atmosphere interaction systems - which is what the monsoon is all about - isn't an easy task. But that still cannot be enough reason for the IMD not to provide some idea of the monsoon's temporal and spatial distribution. Only ten days back, the World Meteorological Organisation's South Asian Climate Outlook Forum projected a below-normal monsoon for South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The APEC Climate Centre in Korea, likewise, expects good rains for India in June, but deficient in July. If these agencies can come out with such specific (and more useful) forecasts, what stops the IMD from following suit?</p><p align="justify">One argument that might be offered here is that the IMD, unlike the various global agencies, cannot afford to give &lsquo;alarmist' predictions of the Indian monsoon. But that misses the point: The job of a weather agency, official or otherwise, is to give the &lsquo;right' forecast using the best available scientific and computational resources. A bad, albeit politically convenient, forecast can do far greater damage than one that, even if less pleasant, allows for timely adjustments by economic agents. Had farmers known about bad rains last June-July - which most agencies, barring IMD, had predicted - they would probably have deferred plantings, while enabling even fertiliser or seed firms to plan dispatches accordingly. But, instead, everyone was caught on the wrong-foot, leading to a renewed burst of food inflation. The IMD needs to be insulated from political pressures and equipped to do what is expected from a professional weather agency.</p>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/weathering-forecasts/article4663506.ece" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu Business Line, 28 April, 2013, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/weathering-forecasts/article4663506.ece</a><div class="clear"></div>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu Business Line<br /></div><p align="justify"><br /> The IMD should be conferred autonomous status so that it functions along professional lines, without worrying about political correctness.</p><p align="justify">Given how awry its forecasts in the last couple of years had gone, one can be forgiven for being cynical about the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) prognosis of a &lsquo;normal' South-West monsoon this time. The country's official weather agency has predicted nationwide rainfall during the four-month monsoon season ending September to be 98 per cent of the historical long period average, making it &lsquo;normal' in an aggregate sense. In 2011 and 2012, too, it had issued similar relatively optimistic first-stage forecasts, only to revise them downwards later, almost in sync with the rather weak rainfall activity seen during June-July. But even as the IMD's outlook turned progressively gloomier, the monsoon's actual performance registered progressive improvement. Both these years ended up with &lsquo;normal' monsoons, though not quite in the order indicated by the IMD. The latter could neither anticipate the monsoon's very poor initial advance nor its spectacular latter-half recovery.</p><p align="justify">The latest 98 per cent normal monsoon forecast for the country as a whole has limited practical utility, as it doesn't provide any insights into how the projected rainfall would be distributed over the four-month period across different regions. Farmers, for instance, are interested more in how much it will rain in their respective areas during June and July, which are the peak sowing months. The IMD may seek to take refuge in the fact that predicting dynamic ocean-land-atmosphere interaction systems - which is what the monsoon is all about - isn't an easy task. But that still cannot be enough reason for the IMD not to provide some idea of the monsoon's temporal and spatial distribution. Only ten days back, the World Meteorological Organisation's South Asian Climate Outlook Forum projected a below-normal monsoon for South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The APEC Climate Centre in Korea, likewise, expects good rains for India in June, but deficient in July. If these agencies can come out with such specific (and more useful) forecasts, what stops the IMD from following suit?</p><p align="justify">One argument that might be offered here is that the IMD, unlike the various global agencies, cannot afford to give &lsquo;alarmist' predictions of the Indian monsoon. But that misses the point: The job of a weather agency, official or otherwise, is to give the &lsquo;right' forecast using the best available scientific and computational resources. A bad, albeit politically convenient, forecast can do far greater damage than one that, even if less pleasant, allows for timely adjustments by economic agents. Had farmers known about bad rains last June-July - which most agencies, barring IMD, had predicted - they would probably have deferred plantings, while enabling even fertiliser or seed firms to plan dispatches accordingly. But, instead, everyone was caught on the wrong-foot, leading to a renewed burst of food inflation. The IMD needs to be insulated from political pressures and equipped to do what is expected from a professional weather agency.</p>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/weathering-forecasts/article4663506.ece" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu Business Line, 28 April, 2013, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/weathering-forecasts/article4663506.ece</a><div class="clear"></div>
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Weathering forecasts</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu Business Line<br /></div><p align="justify"><br /> The IMD should be conferred autonomous status so that it functions along professional lines, without worrying about political correctness.</p><p align="justify">Given how awry its forecasts in the last couple of years had gone, one can be forgiven for being cynical about the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) prognosis of a &lsquo;normal' South-West monsoon this time. The country's official weather agency has predicted nationwide rainfall during the four-month monsoon season ending September to be 98 per cent of the historical long period average, making it &lsquo;normal' in an aggregate sense. In 2011 and 2012, too, it had issued similar relatively optimistic first-stage forecasts, only to revise them downwards later, almost in sync with the rather weak rainfall activity seen during June-July. But even as the IMD's outlook turned progressively gloomier, the monsoon's actual performance registered progressive improvement. Both these years ended up with &lsquo;normal' monsoons, though not quite in the order indicated by the IMD. The latter could neither anticipate the monsoon's very poor initial advance nor its spectacular latter-half recovery.</p><p align="justify">The latest 98 per cent normal monsoon forecast for the country as a whole has limited practical utility, as it doesn't provide any insights into how the projected rainfall would be distributed over the four-month period across different regions. Farmers, for instance, are interested more in how much it will rain in their respective areas during June and July, which are the peak sowing months. The IMD may seek to take refuge in the fact that predicting dynamic ocean-land-atmosphere interaction systems - which is what the monsoon is all about - isn't an easy task. But that still cannot be enough reason for the IMD not to provide some idea of the monsoon's temporal and spatial distribution. Only ten days back, the World Meteorological Organisation's South Asian Climate Outlook Forum projected a below-normal monsoon for South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The APEC Climate Centre in Korea, likewise, expects good rains for India in June, but deficient in July. If these agencies can come out with such specific (and more useful) forecasts, what stops the IMD from following suit?</p><p align="justify">One argument that might be offered here is that the IMD, unlike the various global agencies, cannot afford to give &lsquo;alarmist' predictions of the Indian monsoon. But that misses the point: The job of a weather agency, official or otherwise, is to give the &lsquo;right' forecast using the best available scientific and computational resources. A bad, albeit politically convenient, forecast can do far greater damage than one that, even if less pleasant, allows for timely adjustments by economic agents. Had farmers known about bad rains last June-July - which most agencies, barring IMD, had predicted - they would probably have deferred plantings, while enabling even fertiliser or seed firms to plan dispatches accordingly. But, instead, everyone was caught on the wrong-foot, leading to a renewed burst of food inflation. The IMD needs to be insulated from political pressures and equipped to do what is expected from a professional weather agency.</p>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/weathering-forecasts/article4663506.ece" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu Business Line, 28 April, 2013, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/weathering-forecasts/article4663506.ece</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Weathering forecasts

Published on Apr 29, 2013   Modified on Apr 29, 2013

-The Hindu Business Line The IMD should be conferred autonomous status so that it functions along professional lines, without worrying about political correctness. Given how awry its forecasts in the last couple of years had gone, one can be forgiven for being cynical about the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) prognosis of a ‘normal' South-West monsoon this time. The country's official weather agency has predicted nationwide rainfall during the four-month monsoon season ending September to be 98 per cent of the historical long period average, making it ‘normal' in an aggregate sense. In 2011 and 2012, too, it had issued similar relatively optimistic first-stage forecasts, only to revise them downwards later, almost in sync with the rather weak rainfall activity seen during June-July. But even as the IMD's outlook turned progressively gloomier, the monsoon's actual performance registered progressive improvement. Both these years ended up with ‘normal' monsoons, though not quite in the order indicated by the IMD. The latter could neither anticipate the monsoon's very poor initial advance nor its spectacular latter-half recovery. The latest 98 per cent normal monsoon forecast for the country as a whole has limited practical utility, as it doesn't provide any insights into how the projected rainfall would be distributed over the four-month period across different regions. Farmers, for instance, are interested more in how much it will rain in their respective areas during June and July, which are the peak sowing months. The IMD may seek to take refuge in the fact that predicting dynamic ocean-land-atmosphere interaction systems - which is what the monsoon is all about - isn't an easy task. But that still cannot be enough reason for the IMD not to provide some idea of the monsoon's temporal and spatial distribution. Only ten days back, the World Meteorological Organisation's South Asian Climate Outlook Forum projected a below-normal monsoon for South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The APEC Climate Centre in Korea, likewise, expects good rains for India in June, but deficient in July. If these agencies can come out with such specific (and more useful) forecasts, what stops the IMD from following suit? One argument that might be offered here is that the IMD, unlike the various global agencies, cannot afford to give ‘alarmist' predictions of the Indian monsoon. But that misses the point: The job of a weather agency, official or otherwise, is to give the ‘right' forecast using the best available scientific and computational resources. A bad, albeit politically convenient, forecast can do far greater damage than one that, even if less pleasant, allows for timely adjustments by economic agents. Had farmers known about bad rains last June-July - which most agencies, barring IMD, had predicted - they would probably have deferred plantings, while enabling even fertiliser or seed firms to plan dispatches accordingly. But, instead, everyone was caught on the wrong-foot, leading to a renewed burst of food inflation. The IMD needs to be insulated from political pressures and equipped to do what is expected from a professional weather agency.

The Hindu Business Line, 28 April, 2013, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/weathering-forecasts/article4663506.ece

Tagged with: monsoon Agriculture

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