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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Why number of hungry is rising -Harish Damodaran

Why number of hungry is rising -Harish Damodaran

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published Published on Dec 5, 2018   modified Modified on Dec 5, 2018
-The Indian Express

After number fell from 2003 to 2014, UN data find trend reversed. Yet since 2014, global farm commodity prices have been falling. Here is why that has not stopped the rise in the number of hungry people

A decade-long phenomenon of the number of undernourished people in the world falling between 2003 and 2014, both in absolute terms (from 961.5 million to 783.7 million) and relative to total population (from 15.1% to 10.7%), has reversed during the last three years.

According to the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, the world’s population suffering from hunger — the food they consume isn’t sufficient to provide the minimum dietary energy requirement for leading a normal, active and healthy life — rose to 784.4 million in 2015, 804.2 million in 2016 and 820.8 million in 2017, from the 2014 low of 783.7 million. In relative terms, too, the share of the undernourished in the world population has gone up from 10.7% to 10.9% since 2014.

What is interesting, though, is that the reversal of a prolonged declining trend in world hunger has come despite a collapse in international agri-commodity prices after 2014. The FAO’s own Food Price Index (base year: 2002-2004=100) plunged from an average of 201.8 in 2014 to 164, 161.5 and 174.6 for the following three years. It had previously soared from 97.7 in 2003 to as high as 229.9 in 2011 and remained at 200-plus levels till 2014. And ironically, throughout that period of rising food prices, global hunger numbers kept dipping.

Trends in India

The apparent lack of connection between undernourishment and food prices may, to an extent, be seen even in India.

Annual food inflation (average three-year ending) based on the consumer price index (CPI) for industrial workers ranged from 1.6% to 3.4% during 2001 to 2005, a period when the country’s estimated undernourished population increased from 191.2 million to 256.5 million. Subsequently, food inflation surged to double digits by 2009-10 — which coincided with the worldwide commodity boom — but the number of hungry in India actually dropped to 214.4 million at the end of the decade. While food inflation remained at double-digit levels until 2014, it did not, however, lead to any rise in the number of undernourished. The latter figure has dipped in the last three years for India — unlike the global trend – although not as sharply as the slide in food inflation to below 4% by 2017 (see India chart).

How does one explain such seemingly contradictory movements? Shouldn’t the commodity price collapse or easing of inflation since 2014, after all, have made food more affordable and reduced the prevalence of hunger?

Please click here to read more.

The Indian Express, 5 December, 2018, https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-why-number-of-hungry-is-rising-malnourishment-undernourished-children-5478742/


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