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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Why Two Weather Forecasters Differ on Their Prediction for the Monsoons This Year -Atul Dev

Why Two Weather Forecasters Differ on Their Prediction for the Monsoons This Year -Atul Dev

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published Published on May 11, 2015   modified Modified on May 11, 2015
-CaravanMagazine.in

“If I see clouds forming in the sky, the first question that comes to my head is whether I have forecasted it,” BP Yadav, head of the weather forecasting division at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told me when I met him on 25 April. Yadav’s office, on the second floor of the IMD building that overlooks the Lodhi Gardens in Delhi, is equipped with three LCD monitors that present weather reports and analysis from around the world. From his neatly organised desk, he produces forecasts and warnings regarding the weather for the country. Most recently, under his command, the IMD has predicted weaker rainfall in the southwest monsoon season. If this happens to be true, the consequences are going to be dire for India’s agriculture-based economy, and the country’s farmers will be the worst affected.

According to the forecast, released by Earth Sciences Minister Harsh Vardhan on 22 April, the rainfall this year is going to be 93 percent of the Long Period Average—the average rainfall recorded in India from 1951 to 2000. The figure of 93 percent falls under the category of “below normal” according to the IMD. Less than 90 percent of the LPA, of which there is a 33 percent chance according to the IMD report, is labelled deficient. The prediction for monsoons is conducted in two stages; this is the first stage of the analysis. Closer to the monsoons, a more accurate month-wise report will be released in June; but Yadav is confident of his prognosis. However, according to Skymet—a decade-old private weather forecasting company that has developed a clientele of corporations like TATA, Reliance and the World Bank in recent years—the rainfall will be normal at 103 percent of the LPA.

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CaravanMagazine.in, 11 May, 2015, http://www.caravanmagazine.in/vantage/why-two-weather-forecasters-differ-their-prediction-monsoons


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