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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Will India become a big importer of food? -Ashok Gulati

Will India become a big importer of food? -Ashok Gulati

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published Published on Apr 24, 2019   modified Modified on Apr 24, 2019
-The Hindu Business Line

It could, if agri policies fail to incentivise farmers more. The demand for food is expected to spike in the coming years

India is, today, a country of about 1.35 billion people. United Nations’ population projections of 2017 say that India is likely to surpass China’s population by 2024 and reach 1.5 billion by 2030, making it the most populous nation on the planet.

About two-thirds of Indians are below 35 years of age. India’s GDP has been growing at around 7 per cent annually for the last two decades, and likely to continue at this pace for at least another decade. With population growth gradually declining to 1.1 per cent now and continuing in that direction, per capita incomes in India are likely to grow at around 6 per cent annually for the next decade.

The 2011 consumption expenditure survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) revealed that an average Indian household spent about 45 per cent of its total monthly expenditure on food, implying that the demand for food in India is going to spike in the coming years. This raises a fundamental question: Can India feed itself or will it become a large importer of food? This question is pertinent as India has limited cultivated land (net sown area hovers around 140 million hectares) and its groundwater table is under tremendous pressure, at places depleting at the rate of almost one meter a year. Climate change predictions indicate rising temperatures and greater frequency and intensity of droughts.

Many revolutions

Historically, India has had a tough time feeding its population. In 1943, during the British rule in India, the Bengal famine is said to have taken 1.5-3 million lives. But since Independence in 1947, although widespread deaths have not been reported due to starvation, India faced “ship to mouth” situations during two successive droughts in the mid-1960s. Massive imports of wheat (about 11 million tonnes/year) from the US under Public Law 480 saved the day for India. But it also taught the country a lesson: “Everything else can wait, but not agriculture.” The result was the famous Green Revolution in the late 1960s through miracle seeds, fathered by Norman Borlaug. Today, India is not only self-sufficient in basic staples but also a net exporter. From 2012-13 to 2014-15, India exported a total of 63 million tonnes of cereals, and today, India is the largest exporter of rice.

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The Hindu Business Line, 23 April, 2019, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/will-india-become-a-big-importer-of-food/article26923750.ece?homepage=true


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