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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | ‘With good monsoon, farm growth rate will be robust' by Gargi Parsai

‘With good monsoon, farm growth rate will be robust' by Gargi Parsai

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published Published on May 27, 2010   modified Modified on May 27, 2010


Thanks to predictions of a good monsoon, Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen has projected a robust growth rate of five per cent from 0.2 per cent in agriculture and allied sectors in 2010-11.

From the earlier estimate of -0.2 per cent last year, the growth rate has been revised to 0.2 per cent.

Dr. Sen, who is in charge of the farm and food sector in the Commission, said food inflation was likely to decline to 4-5 per cent by November. (In the week ended May 8, it surged to 16.49 per cent.)

His positive outlook is based not only on the forecast of a “100 per cent normal monsoon” this kharif (summer crop) season but also on the “comfortable” food stock position. Rice output is expected to be over 100 million tonnes this year. Wheat production has already projected at a record 80.98 million tonnes.

Agreeing that food prices were “by and large still too high,” Dr. Sen said: “If the monsoon plays out well then by October — the next kharif output — we expect the prices to decline and the food inflation rate to come down to 4-5 per cent by November. We were hopeful that prices would start declining from March. In fact, the prices of some products like onion and potato have started coming down too fast.”

He was speaking to journalists after delivering the annual B.P. Pal memorial lecture at the Indian Agriculture Research Institute here.

Dr. Sen, however, did not favour export of wheat or rice from government stocks; in fact, he wanted rice exports taxed.

“Global rice prices are alright now, but the moment India enters the market, they will fall. In any case, I feel that there should be a tax on the export of rice. Exporting rice is like exporting water.”

Food Security Bill

On the proposed National Food Security Bill, Dr. Sen said the Planning Commission had accepted the Tendulkar Committee recommendation of providing cheap foodgrains to about 7.4 crore families of the BPL (below the poverty line) population.

According to him, the requirement of foodgrains, depending upon the population base and household size — which would vary between 7.4 crore and 8.3 crore families — would be around 50 million tonnes annually.

“The availability of 50 million tonnes per annum for the public distribution system through procurement in a normal year is not unrealistic, considering we procured around 55 million tonnes in the last three years.” Dr. Sen suggested raising the buffer stock of wheat and rice to about 25 million tonnes as against a maximum of 14 million tonnes (nine million tonne-buffer plus five million tonnes of strategic reserves).


The Hindu, 27 May, 2010, http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/27/stories/2010052759880700.htm


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