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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | World's population to reach 11 billion by 2100 -Kounteya Sinha

World's population to reach 11 billion by 2100 -Kounteya Sinha

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published Published on Sep 19, 2014   modified Modified on Sep 19, 2014
-The Times of India


EDINBURGH: The world's population will soar by four billion to reach 11 billion by 2100.

This means that the number of humans on earth is likely to be around two billion higher than previous estimates.

Most of the anticipated growth is in Africa, where population is projected to quadruple from around 1 billion today to 4 billion by the end of the century.

The main reason is that birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa have not been going down as fast as had been expected. There is an 80% chance that the population in Africa at the end of the century will be between 3.5 billion and 5.1 billion people.

Other regions of the world are projected to see less change.

Asia, now 4.4 billion, is projected to peak at around 5 billion people in 2050 and then begin to decline.

Populations in North America, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to stay below 1 billion each.

The United Nations recently released population projections based on data until 2012.

Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, world population is unlikely to stop growing this century.

There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion, will increase to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion in 2100.

Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.

A new study led by the University of Washington and the United Nations finds that world population is likely to keep growing throughout the 21st century. The number of people on earth is likely to reach 11 billion by 2100, the study concludes, about 2 billion higher than widely cited previous estimates.

"The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around 7 billion, would go up to 9 billion and level off or probably decline," said author Adrian Raftery, a UW professor of statistics and sociology.

"We found there's a 70% probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world's agenda, remains a very important issue."

Rising population could exacerbate world problems such as climate change, infectious disease and poverty, he said. Studies show that the two things that decrease fertility rates are more access to contraceptives and education of girls and women, Raftery added.

Africa, he said, could benefit greatly by acting now to lower its fertility rate.


The Times of India, 19 September, 2014, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/Worlds-population-to-reach-11-billion-by-2100/articleshow/42906926.cms


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