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NEWS ALERTS | Flood forecasting fails in J&K?
Flood forecasting fails in J&K?

Flood forecasting fails in J&K?

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published Published on Sep 20, 2014   modified Modified on May 23, 2016

It is said that the Central Water Commission (CWC) has failed miserably in September 2014 to furnish information on river flow and raise alarm to people of Jammu and Kashmir living in the downstream areas in the midst of heavy rainfall. The CWC is responsible for making forecasts of floods in all flood-prone areas and provides advisory to the states for tackling floods.

The NGO South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP), working in the areas of environment and natural disasters,finds that the CWC did not issue any single forecast on the worsening flood situation in any of the areas of Jammu and Kashmir. As per the SANDRP, the CWC, which is working under the aegis of Union Ministry of Water Resources, released 26 forecasts (i.e. 18 level forecasts and 8 inflow forecasts) related to rainfalls as on 6 September but none of them belonged to the state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

The time span 3 to 6 September is crucial to understand the flood situation in J&K. The data released by India Meteorological Department (IMD) on 6 September tells that in J&K alone 106 mm of rainfall took place on the very same day, which was 3116 per cent of rainfall above the normal level. (Please check the IMD link below). 

As per the data released by the IMD, average rainfall in the state was 250 mm between 3 and 6 September, out of its seasonal monsoon rainfall of 558 mm till 6 September. This was more than usual. Under the present monsoon session, the state of J&K received only 308 mm of rainfall till 3 September, and a large part of J&K was under deficient rainfall. However, seasonal rainfall rose to 558 mm by 6 September and the state became a victim of disaster.

SANDRP has been studying forecasts on floods made by the CWC from time to time. The organization claims that the CWC completely failed to provide any flood forecast when Uttarakhand faced its worst floods in June 2013.

In October last year, widespread monsoon season floods displaced over a million in several Indian states. In the same month, cyclone Phailin, the strongest to hit India in 14 years, brought widespread devastation to eastern coastal areas and forced the evacuation of another million people. A report from the Norwegian Refugee Council and Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre entitled Global Estimates 2014: People displaced by disastersacknowledges that improved preparedness, including evacuations, has been credited with limiting the death toll to fewer than 50 people. The same report also informs us that India ranks third (total no. of people displaced in 2013: 2.14 million) among countries with highest levels of displacement due to natural hazards. However, total number of displaced in India due to conflict (violent in nature) during 2013 is 64,000.


References:
 
Why does Central Water Commission have no flood forecasting for Jammu & Kashmir? Why this neglect by Central Government? SANDRP, 6 September, 2014 (please click here to access)

Global Estimates 2014: People displaced by disasters, produced by Norwegian Refugee Council and Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre(please click here to access)

Chronicle of a tragedy foretold -Himanshu Thakkar, The Hindu, 18 September, 2014 (please click here to access)

Central Water Commission Flood Forecast (please click here to access)

http://180.92.171.80/ffs/hydrograph/

http://180.92.171.80/ffs/data-flow-list-based/

http://www.india-water.gov.in/eSWIS-MapViewer/

J&K floods: Why Central Water Commission has no flood forecasting mechanism in place, wonders SANDRP, Counterview, 11 September, 2014 (please click here to access) 

Jammu & Kashmir missing in CWC flood forecast list, The Hindu, 10 September, 2014 (please click here to access) 

Frequent warnings about dangers of construction -Sumegha Gulati, The Indian Express, 9 September, 2014 (please click here to access) 

Central Water Commission's Flood Forecasting - Pathetic performance in Uttarkhand disaster, SANDRP, 25 June, 2013 (please click here to access) 

Cyclone Phailin hits Odisha at 200 kmph, over 7 lakh evacuated -Ajith Vijay Kumar, Zee News, 13 October, 2014 (please click here to access)
 
Image Courtesy: UNDP India 

 



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