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NEWS ALERTS | Once plentiful in rain, North East now faces frequent drought
Once plentiful in rain, North East now faces frequent drought

Once plentiful in rain, North East now faces frequent drought

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published Published on Dec 14, 2015   modified Modified on May 6, 2016

Often considered to be a rain-abundant region, the North East has been receiving lesser rainfall during the South West monsoon in the recent years as compared to the 1980s and 1990s. This has been revealed in a study entitled Unprecedented drought in North East India compared to Western India done by Bikash Ranjan Parida and Bakimchandra Oinam (see the link below).

Appearing in the December issue of prestigious peer-reviewed scientific journal Current Science, which is published in association with the Indian Academy of Sciences, the study shows that the probability of drought occurrence in the North East is higher as compared to that in Western India, which is considered to have arid and semi-arid regions.

The study observes that Western India, comprising Gujarat region (south and north Gujarat) and Saurashtra–Kutch region, exhibited nearly 28 percent probability of drought in 18 years ((1997–2014), but 40 percent cases were associated with El Niño. However, in the North East comprising Assam and Meghalaya, 8 out of 18 years were associated with meteorological drought giving a probability of drought as 44 percent, whereas 2002, 2006 and 2009 droughts were associated with El Niño.

During the 15 years spanning 2000 to 2014, probability of drought was 27 percent and 54 percent in western India and the North East, respectively. Therefore, the North East faced two times more frequent unprecedented droughts than Western India.

In their study, Parida and Oinam who belong to the departments of Civil Engineering at Shiv Nadar University and National Institute of Technology (Imphal, Manipur), respectively, show that drought probability associated with El Niño was nearly 40–50 percent in western India as well as the North East, which indicates that most of the drought events were associated with the variability of rainfall during the South West monsoon season.

As a consequence of frequent drought, rice production was negatively affected during the years 2005-06 and 2009 in Assam. On top it, other states in the North East were adversely affected during 2010-11 and 2013.  

Existing literature shows that the frequency of drought in India varies from once in 2-3 years (in Western India like Rajasthan and Gujarat) to once in 15 years (in North Eastern India like Assam and Meghalaya). The study by Parida and Oinam informs us that in the North East, Assam (Bongaigaon, Cachar, Dhubri, Goalpara, Golaghat, Kailakandi, Jorhat, Kanpur, Karbi-Anglong, Kokrajhar, Lakhimpur, Morigaon, Nagoan, Nalbari, Sivasagar, Sonitpur) and Meghalaya have experienced drought consecutively during 2005 and 2006 despite the humid region being classified under rare drought event and frequency is once in 15 years. All the seven states in the North East were severely affected due to drought in 2009. In Assam, nearly 10–14 districts were affected in three consecutive years during 2009–2011, which indicates that the frequency of droughts has increased in the recent decade.

Deficient rainfall (–9%) during the kharif season of 2014 led to severe drought and affected 12–14 districts across Assam. As a result, crop production including tea production got affected in the state during that year.

In the recent period (2000–14), the North East has seen more unexpected frequent drought, which shows the impact of global climate change, says the study.


References:

Unprecedented drought in North East India compared to Western India —Bikash Ranjan Parida and Bakimchandra Oinam, Current Science, Vol. 109, No. 11, 10 December 2015, please click here to access

Study rings drought alarm for Northeast, The Telegraph, 13 December, 2015, please click here to access

2015 is likely to be a drought year, please click here to access

Drought crisis worsens: nine states declared hit -Archana Shukla, MoneyControl.com, 3 December, 2015, please click here to access

Nearly half of India’s districts drought-hit as crisis accelerates -Samar Halarnkar, Hindustan Times, 3 December, 2015, please click here to access
 
 
Image Courtesy: Himanshu Joshi


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