During the last one year, India seems to have lost the race in becoming the world leader in terms of development, prosperity and growth thanks to the recession brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic. The total number of poor people in the country has swelled and the middle class has shrunk in 2020 in comparison to what was anticipated earlier. A new study by the United States based think tank Pew...
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A disconnect that shows the real state of the country’s economy -Himanshu
-Livemint.com * Disaggregated data contradicts the rosy picture that national accounts paint of our performance * It’s premature to conclude that a recovery is underway, as our GDP rise in 2020-21’s third quarter was on a very low base. Also, other data sets reveal that distress remains widespread. Estimates of growth in the third quarter of 2020-21 along with advance estimates of the full year were released last month by India’s statistics ministry....
More »The return of puzzling numbers for India’s GDP growth -Pranjul Bhandari
-Livemint.com The Centre’s plan to pay off food subsidy arrears is likely to distort our GDP readings for multiple years A puzzle of sorts has arisen—again—in India’s official gross domestic product (GDP) estimates. They don’t meet the smell test. Back in 2015, the Central Statistics Office’s practice of using ‘single deflation’ instead of ‘double deflation’ during a period of falling commodity prices had distorted growth prints, as per our analysis. This time, too,...
More »India’s migrant workers need better policies -Ravi Srivastava
-The Indian Express NITI Aayog’s draft report is well-intentioned. But its failure to address the policy distortions at the root of migrant workers’ issues cannot be overlooked The lockdown-induced suffering of millions of migrants raised awareness regarding their magnitude, vulnerability, and role in the economy. It also led to a flurry of measures by the central and state governments. It is now encouraging that the Niti Aayog, on the request of the...
More »GDP growth is being driven by larger firms. Smaller ones continue to suffer, need policy attention -Saugata Bhattacharya
-The Indian Express Policy coordination between the Centre and states will be crucial for implementing this ambitious reform agenda. The National Statistical Office will release the second advance GDP estimates for 2020-21 at the end of February. The first advance estimate had, in early January, forecasted a contraction of 7.7 per cent in 2020-21. This was due largely to an expected, sharp contraction in both industry and services. The second advance estimates...
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