A clearing house of ideas, info, alternatives, on rural India's multiple crises

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	'title' => 'Economic growth problem: It&#039;s time now for Modi-II to undo the damage -TN Ninan',
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-Business Standard<br />
<br />
<em>Aiming for unachievable growth rates would compound past errors. The economy has to lower its sights, and do some hard thinking about how to come out of the present hole, writes T N Ninan<br />
</em><br />
There is a general sense that the economic growth problem came upon us suddenly in the last few months. In some ways, it did &mdash; for example, through the continuing fallout of the collapse 11 months ago of IL&amp;FS. That was about the time when the decline in automobile sales began. Similarly, Jet&rsquo;s collapse in April sent up air fares and applied the brakes on what until then was rapid growth in air traffic. In a sense, therefore, the burdens hanging heavy on current GDP numbers are stochastic: The result of random events in different market segments, and hence not predictable.<br />
<br />
Yet, many numbers tell us that today&rsquo;s denouement could have been seen coming. During the five years of Modi-I, the net sales of 2,769 non-financial companies tracked by Capitaline increased by a modest 34.5 per cent, even as their net profits increased by an even more modest 20.6 per cent (less than inflation during this period). Most tellingly, assets increased hardly at all over the five years, by just 3.5 per cent &mdash; affected, it would seem, by the bankruptcy process because 2018-19 saw a precipitous decline in private sector assets. These growth rates do not support the official 7.5 per cent growth narrative.<br />
<br />
The major source of the problem is clear when one looks at the only corporate number which has improved over the five years: The debt-equity ratio. For the private sector this number fell from 1.13 to 0.80, while the public sector&rsquo;s ratio remained more or less unchanged, moving from 0.74 to 0.77. If businesses are focused on de-leveraging, they can hardly be investing. This is the price extracted by investment mistakes during UPA rule, and should have been foreseen. But Modi-I must share the blame, for muted reform of the financial sector, partisan policy in telecom, the harm done to exports by an over-priced rupee, and so on.<br />
<br />
Please <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/economic-growth-problem-it-s-time-now-for-modi-ii-to-undo-the-damage-119082301231_1.html?code=ZEZBMmxpbVJKSldIdXZ0Z1lPUGxOM3lkalQvWmdvbWJZMjVVaFczOFk0WT0%3D&amp;fbclid=IwAR3n0a4cgeEzmnWHO_TU-LnkDkQPywvnZcPtou8ApMPByuBJic-4bfkr2qY#.XWAvRx2rREo.twitter">click here</a> to read more. <br />
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-Business Standard

Aiming for unachievable growth rates would compound past errors. The economy has to lower its sights, and do some hard thinking about how to come out of the present hole, writes T N Ninan

There is a general sense that the economic growth problem came upon us suddenly in the last few months. In some ways, it did &mdash; for example, through the continuing fallout of the collapse 11 months...'
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	'title' => 'Economic growth problem: It&#039;s time now for Modi-II to undo the damage -TN Ninan',
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-Business Standard<br />
<br />
<em>Aiming for unachievable growth rates would compound past errors. The economy has to lower its sights, and do some hard thinking about how to come out of the present hole, writes T N Ninan<br />
</em><br />
There is a general sense that the economic growth problem came upon us suddenly in the last few months. In some ways, it did &mdash; for example, through the continuing fallout of the collapse 11 months ago of IL&amp;FS. That was about the time when the decline in automobile sales began. Similarly, Jet&rsquo;s collapse in April sent up air fares and applied the brakes on what until then was rapid growth in air traffic. In a sense, therefore, the burdens hanging heavy on current GDP numbers are stochastic: The result of random events in different market segments, and hence not predictable.<br />
<br />
Yet, many numbers tell us that today&rsquo;s denouement could have been seen coming. During the five years of Modi-I, the net sales of 2,769 non-financial companies tracked by Capitaline increased by a modest 34.5 per cent, even as their net profits increased by an even more modest 20.6 per cent (less than inflation during this period). Most tellingly, assets increased hardly at all over the five years, by just 3.5 per cent &mdash; affected, it would seem, by the bankruptcy process because 2018-19 saw a precipitous decline in private sector assets. These growth rates do not support the official 7.5 per cent growth narrative.<br />
<br />
The major source of the problem is clear when one looks at the only corporate number which has improved over the five years: The debt-equity ratio. For the private sector this number fell from 1.13 to 0.80, while the public sector&rsquo;s ratio remained more or less unchanged, moving from 0.74 to 0.77. If businesses are focused on de-leveraging, they can hardly be investing. This is the price extracted by investment mistakes during UPA rule, and should have been foreseen. But Modi-I must share the blame, for muted reform of the financial sector, partisan policy in telecom, the harm done to exports by an over-priced rupee, and so on.<br />
<br />
Please <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/economic-growth-problem-it-s-time-now-for-modi-ii-to-undo-the-damage-119082301231_1.html?code=ZEZBMmxpbVJKSldIdXZ0Z1lPUGxOM3lkalQvWmdvbWJZMjVVaFczOFk0WT0%3D&amp;fbclid=IwAR3n0a4cgeEzmnWHO_TU-LnkDkQPywvnZcPtou8ApMPByuBJic-4bfkr2qY#.XWAvRx2rREo.twitter">click here</a> to read more. <br />
</div>',
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-Business Standard

Aiming for unachievable growth rates would compound past errors. The economy has to lower its sights, and do some hard thinking about how to come out of the present hole, writes T N Ninan

There is a general sense that the economic growth problem came upon us suddenly in the last few months. In some ways, it did &mdash; for example, through the continuing fallout of the collapse 11 months...'
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