Last week, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first annual monsoon forecast for June-September. Monsoons are likely to be normal with the probability of deficient or excessive monsoons being relatively low, according to IMD. If this prediction comes true, what does this really mean for India's economy? Impact on agricultural output: The first and most important impact is, of course, on agricultural production, especially in the kharif or summer season....

Here is a new set of official statistics that can escalate the politically contentious debate on what constitutes the poverty line. If the average monthly consumption expenditure is taken as the benchmark of what an individual needs to survive, the poverty linewould be Rs 66.10 for urban areas and Rs 35.10 for rural regions, while about 65% of the population will be below this cutoff. The figures, based on the 66th round...

The robust 9 per cent –plus growth in South Asia till 2010, driven largely by India, where it came down to around 7 per cent in 2011-12, had one major qualifier: it was mostly associated with a rapid rise in labour productivity rather than an expansion in employment, according to the latest report Global Employment Trends from International Labour Office. Up until the end of the millennium, that is just a...

But non-farm income keeps economy afloat   New Delhi, April 25: The rural growth story is slowly losing sheen because of inflation and rising input costs. In fact, rural price level is higher than urban price level. The March Consumer Price Index number for rural India stood at 116.3, while that for urban India stood at 114.6. Mr Ajay Sriram, Chairman and Senior Managing Director, DCM Sriram Consolidated Ltd, says the rural growth...

There is evidence to show that growth is slowly becoming inclusive. But for the quality of life to improve, incomes must be complemented by infrastructure. For close to at least five years now inclusive growth has had a central place in the official discourse on the economy. The UPA II has itself worn its self-proclaimed success in delivering an inclusive growth as a badge of its effectiveness, not to mention its...