Last week, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first annual monsoon forecast for June-September. Monsoons are likely to be normal with the probability of deficient or excessive monsoons being relatively low, according to IMD. If this prediction comes true, what does this really mean for India's economy? Impact on agricultural output: The first and most important impact is, of course, on agricultural production, especially in the kharif or summer season....
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A good monsoon is an occasion to invest in a major overhaul of farm policy
-The Economic Times India will have a Normal Monsoon this year, says the Met office. This is good news, even though the forecast does not rule out some slack during the second half of the season. What matters finally is the distribution of rainfall across space and time rather than the aggregate percentages. However, a good monsoon is only one side of the story to have a strong farm sector. Reforms are...
More »Monsoon ‘most likely' to be normal, says IMD
-The Hindu The India Meteorological Department announced on Thursday that the coming monsoon would “mostly likely” be normal. The average rainfall would be 99 per cent of the long period average [LPA], with a model error of plus or minus five per cent. There was a 47 per cent probability of the rainfall being between 96 per cent and 104 per cent, 24 per cent probability of its being between 90 and...
More »Record foodgrain estimate won’t lead to lower prices-Ruchira Singh
Rice, wheat production seen at highest ever, but other commodities show a decline from previous year’s harvest The government estimated a record high foodgrain crop for the 2011-12 crop year that ends in June, driven mainly by higher output of rice and wheat, but experts said prices are likely to remain firm and keep inflation at around 7%. The likelihood that the government will increase the minimum prices it guarantees farmers for...
More »South Asia to receive average monsoon this year
-Reuters India may have average rainfall in 2012 despite fears the El Nino weather pattern may emerge in the second half of the season South Asia is likely to receive average monsoon rains in 2012, a global forum relied on by governments for forecasting said, erasing the possibility of any drought in the region and India, which is a major consumer and producer of farm commodities. "The region is likely to receive average...
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