Borrowing was both the shaky foundation of global growth and the cause of its collapse. It started with a bust and it ended with an even bigger bust. In between was sandwiched an unsustainable boom. Banks have been humbled. Economists have been found wanting. Geopolitical power began to shift from west to east. That was the noughties that was. It barely seems five minutes ago that policymakers were fretting about the...

The recession was less calamitous than many feared. Its aftermath will be more dangerous than many expect IT HAS become known as the “Great Recession”, the year in which the global economy suffered its deepest slump since the second world war. But an equally apt name would be the “Great Stabilisation”. For 2009 was extraordinary not just for how output fell, but for how a catastrophe was averted. Twelve months ago,...

Right time for policy reform The government is set to face disappointment on its expectation that the fertiliser subsidy will go down sharply this year due to a softening of international prices of fertilisers. It now appears almost certain that the total payable subsidy in 2009-10 may be around Rs 70,000 crore, against the budgetary provision of under Rs 50,000 crore. Since the government has made it clear that no additional...

Food prices have hit a 10-year-high as supply shortages due to poor monsoon and floods in some parts finally bit hard, forcing a worried government to announce a step-up in imports and strengthening expectations of RBI tightening policy to stop a breakout of inflation in the wider economy. Prices of potato, other vegetables and pulses drove inflation to 19.95% in the year to December 5, surging from 19% in the...

For about a week after the Dubai crisis broke, international financial markets chose to ignore it. Stock-markets climbed, commodity prices rose and the dollar continued to be beaten down. It is not too difficult to explain this initial indifference. For one, the magnitude of the Dubai crisis appeared piffling, at first glance, compared to the “subprime” crisis or the meltdown following “Lehman’s bust”. When global banks had run up losses...