The World Economic Outlook – a bi-annual publication of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- released in October 2020 has anticipated that the economic progress made by the countries since the 1990s to reduce poverty would be turned upside down by the COVID-19 pandemic. On top of that, economic disparity would rise too in the post-COVID world because the crisis has disproportionately impacted women, informal sector workers and people with...
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The awkward myth of a revival in the country’s rural economy -Himanshu
-Livemint.com Low incomes and poor farm-gate prices capture the reality of relentless distress in our hinterland National accounts data released last month estimated that the economy has contracted by 7.5% in the second quarter of 2020-21 compared to last year. For many, this was a sign of recovery, given expectations that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) would contract by around 10%. It is, no doubt, an improvement from the 23.9% GDP decline...
More »Plunging down -Prabhat Patnaik
-The Telegraph The Indian economy is in a quagmire Data released by the National Statistical Office, which show the gross domestic product for the second quarter (July-September) of 2020-21 declining by “only” 7.5 per cent compared to the second quarter of the previous year, have been hailed in official circles as “good news”; on the contrary, they show the economy being stuck in a quagmire. The first point to note is that while...
More »There’s Nothing to Celebrate About Q2 GDP Estimates -Prabhat Patmaik
-Newsclick.in The statistics are dubious because there is a substantial increase in GDP under the head “discrepancies”, which is synonymous with errors and omissions. It is ironic that government spokespersons should exhibit so much euphoria over the second quarter (July-September) gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, which shows a drop “only” of 7.5% compared with the second quarter 2019-20. The expectation had been that the drop would be larger, about 8 to 9%;...
More »The Indian economic recovery seems led by profits, not wages -Niranjan Rajadhyaksha
-Livemint.com Such a recovery will be stress-tested in an economy with excess capacity. That is why wages matter The first estimates of economic growth in the September quarter indicate that India’s ongoing recovery has been better than expected. This is a good time to resurrect a question this column had raised in August: Will the economic recovery be led by profits or wages? The answer matters because it has implications for aggregate...
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