The Union finance ministry’s mid-year fiscal Review, tabled in Parliament last week, notes very correctly that the “current period represents a crossroads for the Indian economy”. Having weathered the global economic downturn, the Indian economy has performed better than expected. Hence, the Review’s upbeat tone is understandable. Yet, the Review offers an honest account of the challenges ahead, hence the view that India is at a crossroads. Much of the...

Right time for policy reform The government is set to face disappointment on its expectation that the fertiliser subsidy will go down sharply this year due to a softening of international prices of fertilisers. It now appears almost certain that the total payable subsidy in 2009-10 may be around Rs 70,000 crore, against the budgetary provision of under Rs 50,000 crore. Since the government has made it clear that no additional...

It is official now that the poverty in India is much more than earlier estimated. The Suresh Tendulkar Committee report submitted this month (December 09) estimates poverty in India at over 37 per cent (2004-5) and not at 28 per cent as calculated earlier. With recent price rise in food items factored, the current level could be even higher (See the link of the report below). The Government of India had...

The recession was less calamitous than many feared. Its aftermath will be more dangerous than many expect IT HAS become known as the “Great Recession”, the year in which the global economy suffered its deepest slump since the second world war. But an equally apt name would be the “Great Stabilisation”. For 2009 was extraordinary not just for how output fell, but for how a catastrophe was averted. Twelve months ago,...

The Suresh Tendulkar committee report revising upwards poverty estimates across the country may further strain government finances with many of the states already demanding special status to address the issue and an enhanced allocation under many of the pro-poor schemes. The committee, in its report submitted to the Planning Commission last week, had estimated that 37% of India’s population is under the poverty line, while the proportion of the poor...