-NDTV Lately, the January releases from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) about the advanced estimates of national income have a touch of seasonal chill. The estimate of the real GDP growth rate for 2019-20 has touched 5%, falling from 6.8% in 2018-19, continuing a downward slide that started in 2016-17. This is the lowest growth rate since 2008-09, which was the year of the global financial crisis. Indeed, in the entire...
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GDP makes it official: India's economy is on a graveyard spiral -Sunitha Natti
-The New Indian Express The latest growth print also implies that restoring both India's fastest growing economy tag and the ballyhooed USD 5-trillion target will be further delayed It's official. India's economy has been reduced from flesh to bone with September quarter GDP growth crashing to a 26-quarter-low of 4.5 per cent. Just a quarter before, it grew at 5 per cent, which now appears respectable than the latest print. The Central Statistics Office's...
More »In variance with the official growth story -R Nagaraj
-The Hindu Surveys, including the recently leaked one on consumer expenditure, point to the economy’s dire state How fast has India grown lately? And, what are the yardsticks on which the country’s performance is being measured? These have remained contentious questions. Following the last decade’s boom, the economy was slowing after 2011-2012, but apparently turned around under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) regime. Until very recently, the government claimed the economic success...
More »Why India's mega bank mergers move may not yield the desired results -Mythili Bhusnurmath
-The Economic Times Government’s forced mega merger of public sector banks could scupper economic recovery. I am not saying we maintain a Panglossian countenance, that we smile away every difficulty. But, in any real economy, the mood is very important,’ observed Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das, speaking at an event in Mumbai late August. Sound advice. Sentiment matters. Irrational despondency can be as damaging for the economy as ‘irrational exuberance’. But...
More »Is India overestimating its economic growth? -TCA Sharad Raghavan
-The Hindu The new GDP series has some methodological and sampling problems Former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian recently claimed in a paper that India’s GDP growth from 2011-12 to 2016-17 was likely to have been overestimated. The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has rejected this claim, stating that his paper would “not stand the scrutiny of academic or policy research standards”. In a conversation moderated by T.C.A. Sharad Raghavan, Pronab Sen...
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