-The Telegraph Why are animal spirits in quarantine? Animal spirits, the primordial driver of growth that is unquantifiable, are once more in the spotlight. The current context is the dire growth outlook from the Covid-19 impact, future prospects and how to improve these. However, the absence of animal spirits has been felt and commented upon longer than that. It can be traced as far back as the 2012-13 slowdown, or the shortfall...
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India needs consumers, but RBI survey shows it won't get them soon enough -Aparna Iyer
-Livemint.com Consumer Confidence indices, an output of RBI survey of 5,300 households spread across 13 cities, fell to a historic low in May. The future expectations index dropped to 97.9 in May from 115.2 in March MUMBAI: As the covid-19 pandemic continues to spread, India’s economy has lost its main engine of growth: consumption. A survey by the country’s central bank shows how stark is the pessimism among Indians. It also gives various...
More »Reality check: on govt projecting slower GDP growth
-The Hindu Misplaced optimism needs to cede ground to tangible policy interventions The government’s advance estimates for economic output and growth for the fiscal year ending in March may raise eyebrows, but only for the wrong reasons. The National Statistical Office (NSO) has estimated that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will expand by 5% in the 12-month period, in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s sharp downward revision last month in its...
More »Indian economy delicately poised -Renu Kohli
-The Telegraph By all indications revival in 2020 is not possible The year 2019 has played out on a mixed note. Politically, the general election outcome upheld the popular choice of a majority government. Economically, conditions deteriorated rapidly through the year. In fact, an undercurrent of concern about the economic situation prevailed throughout 2019. This surfaced upfront immediately after the May election and reached a flashpoint by the middle of the...
More »Serious questions confront policymakers. Yet data are not reliable enough for them to be answered -Arvind Subramanian & Josh Felman
-The Indian Express Running an economy, especially one that is in a predicament such as India’s today, is infinitely more complicated and the data demands are hence commensurately greater. A Data Big Bang effort along the lines proposed here would make that difficult task less challenging. As the government responds to the challenges posed by the economic slowdown, there’s an ignored area of reform, where simple measures could have potentially big payoffs....
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