-The Indian Express To get the engine of the economy revving, an expansionary fiscal policy that harnesses the energy of the informal sector to boost aggregate demand is the order of the day. That India is in the midst of a serious economic slowdown is no longer in question. The debates are now mostly about what to do about it: Whether to opt for a fiscal expansion to boost demand or to...
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Agriculture reforms:: a mantra for equitable growth -Ajay S Shriram
-The Indian Express There are many things that the government can do to improve ease of doing business for kisan and industry. The budget season is upon us, with a flurry of submissions being made to the finance minister from all quarters. The budget itself could result in a fine-tuning of tax rates and allocation adjustments against various expenditure heads/ministries. There are implications from these for all sectors. And no less...
More »Mind the statistics gap -C Rangarajan & S Mahendra Dev
-The Indian Express Growing divergence between consumption expenditure estimates from NSO surveys and GDP data is too big to be pushed under the carpet Recently, we had expressed concerns that with the GDP growth rate falling in the post 2011-12 period, the decline in the poverty ratio would be slow. During 2011-12 to 2018-19, both GDP and agriculture growth were lower than in the earlier period. The terms of trade were not...
More »Survey data and government claims need not always match -Himanshu
-Livemint.com Let’s not discredit the findings of statistical surveys that are conducted among real respondents The uncomfortable truth that emerged from the leaked report of the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) is that rural poverty increased substantially between 2011-12 and 2017-18 for the first time in five decades. That this happened during a period of claimed high growth should have led to more research on what went wrong. Instead, there have been attempts...
More »India's rural poverty has shot up -Pramit Bhattacharya & Sriharsha Devulapalli
-Livemint.com Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha have seen sharp increases in poverty rates over the past few years, an analysis of the national statistical office data suggests Ever since India moved to a high growth trajectory in the 1980s, poverty rates have consistently declined over time. Until now. A Mint analysis of the consumption expenditure numbers reported by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in a hushed-up report suggests that rural poverty rose nearly 4...
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