A clearing house of ideas, info, alternatives, on rural India's multiple crises

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	'title' => 'Demonetisation: Politics trumps economics -Deepak Nayyar',
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-Livemint.com<br />
<br />
<em>The possible macroeconomic consequences of demonetisation are cause for concern as cash is the lifeblood of the economy<br />
</em><br />
It is exactly one month since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the decision that Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 notes would cease to be legal tender acceptable for payments in settlement of transactions. There was some provision for exchange or deposit of old notes at banks, but with specified limits on sums and time.<br />
<br />
The past century has witnessed several demonetisations, when governments have decided that existing national currencies, guaranteed by the sovereign, are no longer legal tender. It has happened in: (a) countries that have experienced hyperinflation&mdash;where inflation rates are measured per week or per month rather than per annum&mdash;such as Germany in 1923 or Argentina thrice in the 20th century; (b) countries on the verge of economic collapse, such as Zimbabwe in 2015; and (c) countries in deep economic or political crises, such as Ghana in 1982, Nigeria in 1984, Myanmar in 1987, Zaire in 1993 and the USSR in 1991. In most, outcomes were failures, if not disasters.<br />
<br />
The situation in India is completely different from what it was in these countries at the time of demonetisation. The economy is characterized by rapid growth and price stability. The polity is a vibrant democracy with an elected government. Hence, past experience elsewhere has little relevance. Yet, history matters.<br />
<br />
What, then, is the rationale for demonetisation in India? The stated objective is economic. The government hopes to eradicate black money, as also combat corruption, smuggling, and counterfeit notes. The unstated objective is political. The government, exactly halfway through its five-year term, concerned about perceptions that little had changed, wanted to do something bold. For the Prime Minister, there is also a pro-poor populism, in acting against the rich who evaded laws, and in reaching out to people directly, without any intermediation through his political party. The state elections to come in early 2017 are part of the same political calculus, not only because Modi wishes to be seen as a man of the people, but also because demonetisation will wipe out any hordes of black money held in cash by opposition political parties. Of course, it must be recognized that economics and politics, closely intertwined, are inseparable. Indeed, their interaction is likely to shape future outcomes.<br />
<br />
The implementation of the demonetisation decision requires evaluation, even at the end of one month, because it has affected the lives of most people. The logistics of this exercise would have been tough in a perfect world. But it is exceedingly difficult in a situation where 86% of currency notes in circulation have been withdrawn at one stroke in what is essentially a cash economy. Poor implementation has made the situation far worse. The replacement notes, either unseen (Rs500) or of little use (Rs2,000), are scarce. Millions have queued at banks and ATMs, which do not have enough cash. Getting one&rsquo;s own money is an elusive quest.<br />
<br />
Frequent changes in rules about what a citizen can or cannot do suggest day-to-day reactions rather than prior planning. The stipulated limit on exchange of old notes for new at banks has been changed thrice and the facility has been simply discontinued five weeks before the announced date. The acceptance of old notes for specified transactions, at petrol pumps, pharmacies or public utilities, has been introduced and withdrawn in a haphazard stop-go manner. The regulations about the deposit of old notes at banks, or the limits on what people can withdraw from their own accounts, have kept changing. The ground was simply not prepared.<br />
<br />
Please <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/Pt92dQonYDzCgn8itvIrnK/Demonetisation-Politics-trumps-economics.html">click here</a> to read more. <br />
</div>',
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-Livemint.com

The possible macroeconomic consequences of demonetisation are cause for concern as cash is the lifeblood of the economy

It is exactly one month since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the decision that Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 notes would cease to be legal tender acceptable for payments in settlement of transactions. There was some provision for exchange or deposit of old notes at banks, but with specified limits on sums and time.

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	'title' => 'Demonetisation: Politics trumps economics -Deepak Nayyar',
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-Livemint.com<br />
<br />
<em>The possible macroeconomic consequences of demonetisation are cause for concern as cash is the lifeblood of the economy<br />
</em><br />
It is exactly one month since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the decision that Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 notes would cease to be legal tender acceptable for payments in settlement of transactions. There was some provision for exchange or deposit of old notes at banks, but with specified limits on sums and time.<br />
<br />
The past century has witnessed several demonetisations, when governments have decided that existing national currencies, guaranteed by the sovereign, are no longer legal tender. It has happened in: (a) countries that have experienced hyperinflation&mdash;where inflation rates are measured per week or per month rather than per annum&mdash;such as Germany in 1923 or Argentina thrice in the 20th century; (b) countries on the verge of economic collapse, such as Zimbabwe in 2015; and (c) countries in deep economic or political crises, such as Ghana in 1982, Nigeria in 1984, Myanmar in 1987, Zaire in 1993 and the USSR in 1991. In most, outcomes were failures, if not disasters.<br />
<br />
The situation in India is completely different from what it was in these countries at the time of demonetisation. The economy is characterized by rapid growth and price stability. The polity is a vibrant democracy with an elected government. Hence, past experience elsewhere has little relevance. Yet, history matters.<br />
<br />
What, then, is the rationale for demonetisation in India? The stated objective is economic. The government hopes to eradicate black money, as also combat corruption, smuggling, and counterfeit notes. The unstated objective is political. The government, exactly halfway through its five-year term, concerned about perceptions that little had changed, wanted to do something bold. For the Prime Minister, there is also a pro-poor populism, in acting against the rich who evaded laws, and in reaching out to people directly, without any intermediation through his political party. The state elections to come in early 2017 are part of the same political calculus, not only because Modi wishes to be seen as a man of the people, but also because demonetisation will wipe out any hordes of black money held in cash by opposition political parties. Of course, it must be recognized that economics and politics, closely intertwined, are inseparable. Indeed, their interaction is likely to shape future outcomes.<br />
<br />
The implementation of the demonetisation decision requires evaluation, even at the end of one month, because it has affected the lives of most people. The logistics of this exercise would have been tough in a perfect world. But it is exceedingly difficult in a situation where 86% of currency notes in circulation have been withdrawn at one stroke in what is essentially a cash economy. Poor implementation has made the situation far worse. The replacement notes, either unseen (Rs500) or of little use (Rs2,000), are scarce. Millions have queued at banks and ATMs, which do not have enough cash. Getting one&rsquo;s own money is an elusive quest.<br />
<br />
Frequent changes in rules about what a citizen can or cannot do suggest day-to-day reactions rather than prior planning. The stipulated limit on exchange of old notes for new at banks has been changed thrice and the facility has been simply discontinued five weeks before the announced date. The acceptance of old notes for specified transactions, at petrol pumps, pharmacies or public utilities, has been introduced and withdrawn in a haphazard stop-go manner. The regulations about the deposit of old notes at banks, or the limits on what people can withdraw from their own accounts, have kept changing. The ground was simply not prepared.<br />
<br />
Please <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/Pt92dQonYDzCgn8itvIrnK/Demonetisation-Politics-trumps-economics.html">click here</a> to read more. <br />
</div>',
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-Livemint.com

The possible macroeconomic consequences of demonetisation are cause for concern as cash is the lifeblood of the economy

It is exactly one month since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the decision that Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 notes would cease to be legal tender acceptable for payments in settlement of transactions. There was some provision for exchange or deposit of old notes at banks, but with specified limits on sums and time.

The past...'
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Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51

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