-The Indian Express What needs to be ensured is that the recovery is not hamstrung by damaged household and SME balance sheets because of the extended loss of wages and incomes. This requires extensive income support now. Sometimes we miss the forest for the trees, and at other times the trees themselves become the story. That seems to be the case with India’s 3Q20 GDP print. Some have exulted over headline growth printing...
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The dangers of misplaced optimism -CP Chandrasekhar
-The Hindu The government’s Economic Recovery hype is off track and this is not a time for fiscal conservatism Preliminary evidence that India’s economy contracted by 7.5% in the second quarter of financial year 2020-21 was, as news, both good and bad. Good because that figure is far lower than the 23.9% contraction registered in the first quarter of this financial year. Bad because a 7.5% second quarter contraction is high both...
More »Study points towards hunger and destitution amidst hope for a V-shaped Economic Recovery
Preliminary findings of a survey among 3,994 respondents from 11 states reveal that most vulnerable households and communities, such as SCs, STs, OBCs, PVTGs, slum dwellers, daily wage labourers, farmers, single women headed households, etc. continue to witness depressed incomes during September-October in comparison to their income levels prior to the lockdown. The face-to-face survey conducted by the Right to Food Campaign and Center for Equity Studies (instead of telephonic...
More »True fiscal responsibility -Pulapre Balakrishnan
-The Hindu Slashing public expenditure amid a recession is a recipe for serious economic disaster The National Statistical Office (NSO) recently announced estimates of economic activity in the second quarter of the current financial year. As most of the first quarter coincided with the lockdown announced by the Central government, it would only have been expected that output would be depressed as production could not have taken place. And this is what...
More »Questionable data, little room for exuberance -R Nagaraj
-The Hindu Using the latest quarterly estimates to point to an economic rebound seems flawed; recovery is likely to remain modest The decline in the quarterly GDP growth rate, by 7.5% during July-September 2020 (FY 2020-21: Q2), compared to a 24% decline in the first quarter has raised expectations of a sharp Economic Recovery after the novel coronavirus pandemic and the national lockdown. But is such optimism justified? A tracker India’s GDP at current...
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