-Financial Chronicle   Forecasts on possible monsoon behaviour are not very encouraging. There is a possibility of El Nino factors causing further problems. More recently, our farmers in parts of north and central India experienced the fury of hailstorms and heavy rains. Climate change further complicates the possibility of providing accurate advance estimates of monsoon behaviour. This is not only true in our country, but also around the world. California, for example,...

-Down to Earth   Poverty line figures hide people's aspirations There are lies, damn lies and statistics, American author Mark Twain once wrote echoing a similar statement by the British statesman Benjamin Disraeli. Statistics aim to reveal a lot, but they conceal vital information. This concealing tendency of statistics explains much of the flak received by the Planning Commission when it released figures on the poverty line. In 2012, the commission announced that...

-The Indian Express   Debate on the Gujarat model is more about stated positions, less about reality. Having done economic modelling all my life, as a student at the University of Pennsylvania, which boasted of the Wharton model and Lawrence Klein, and later, in the days when planning still mattered, while heading the modelling division of the Planning Commission, I find it bewildering that Gujarat's substantial real achievements and equally real problems are...

-The Indian Express   The Gujarat model continues to generate more heat than light. This is in response to Professor Yoginder K. Alagh's article, ‘Posture-nomics' (IE, May 7), wherein he says, "Getting back to agriculture, the 10 per cent growth rate figure was the result of a paid-for study commissioned by the government of Gujarat and conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute, to which [Ashok] Gulati was affiliated. The finding was...

-The Business Standard   More, water levels in the reservoirs of southern India are below the 10-year average at 8.28 billion cubic metres As doubts mount over the impact of El Niño on the southwest monsoon season in 2014, India's preparedness to face a low rainfall situation seems to have improved in the past four-five years. However, there are many gaps to be plugged. For example, although the average water in major reservoirs across...