-The Telegraph "The government has miserably failed to stimulate the domestic economy. It has spent less and less on public education, healthcare and infrastructure because of its erroneous policy" The Modi government has an ambitious plan to create a $5-trillion economy in the next five years — but all data points are heavily stacked against it. The economy is floundering and the Reserve Bank of India has already trimmed its growth forecast...
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Unhappy numbers
-The Indian Express Economic data raises questions about missed opportunities and expending of political capital by NDA government. As India’s political parties switch to poll mode, economic data released in the past few days at the end of the NDA government’s term paints a far from rosy picture. Industrial growth in January slowed down to 1.7 per cent compared to the 2.6 per cent growth in Factory Output in December last...
More »Why Factory Output figures are suspect -R Nagaraj
-The Hindu Business Line The MCA database, which underpins the jump in factory GDP, is unconvincing. The ASI method was set aside for wrong reasons In early 2015, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) introduced a new series of National Accounts Statistics (NAS) with 2011-12 as the base year, replacing the earlier series with the base year 2004-05. It is the CSO's routine job to make such revisions, roughly once in a decade,...
More »Factory workers in India -CP Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
-NetworkIdeas.org Recent data from the Annual Survey of Industries, covering up to 2015-16, provide some interesting insights into the changing nature of industrial employment in India. In the decade up to 2015-16, there was a significant increase in the number of factory workers, by around 40 per cent. This expansion can be dated from around 2005-06 onwards and especially up to 2011-12. This is to be expected, given that that was...
More »The paradox of job growth -R Nagaraj
-The Hindu Besides the missing informal sector, over-estimation of output growth also offers clues Are the latest employment estimates by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) factually correct? No. They are off the mark, and confined to the economy’s organised or formal sector, accounting at best for 15% of the workforce. Is there a paradox in high output growth rates and the marginal effect on employment? Probably not, if one acknowledges that GDP...
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