-The Indian Express To get the engine of the economy revving, an expansionary fiscal policy that harnesses the energy of the informal sector to boost aggregate demand is the order of the day. That India is in the midst of a serious economic slowdown is no longer in question. The debates are now mostly about what to do about it: Whether to opt for a fiscal expansion to boost demand or to...
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Mind the statistics gap -C Rangarajan & S Mahendra Dev
-The Indian Express Growing divergence between consumption expenditure estimates from NSO surveys and GDP data is too big to be pushed under the carpet Recently, we had expressed concerns that with the GDP growth rate falling in the post 2011-12 period, the decline in the poverty ratio would be slow. During 2011-12 to 2018-19, both GDP and agriculture growth were lower than in the earlier period. The terms of trade were not...
More »The curious case of a consumption decline
-Livemint.com A leaked NSO survey report says that expenditure by consumers across India actually fell over a six-year span till 2017-18. This is at odds with our GDP data. So what explains this finding? Is Indian consumption in decline? Anecdotal evidence has pointed that way for some time. But now, a leaked survey report of the National Statistical Office (NSO), published on Friday in Business Standard, seems to confirm suspicions of such...
More »Consumption expenditure survey: Government to scrap report over bad data -Roshan Kishore
-Hindustan Times On Friday, Business Standard released leaked findings from the 2017-18 CES which showed that inflation-adjusted average monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) declined by 3.7% in the country between 2011-12 and 2017-18, a first in four decades. The ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MOSPI) has decided “not to release the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) results of 2017-2018” in view of “data quality issues”, it said in a statement. On Friday,...
More »Dumb and Dumber: Facing slowdown, govt squeezes expenditure -Subodh Varma
-Newsclick.in Rather than spending more, government expenditure by July 2019 is less than what it was last year as share of annual budget, with key public welfare related ministries cutting most. India is facing an unprecedented slowdown of the economy with GDP growth slumping to 5% in the June quarter, agriculture growing by only 2% and manufacturing by a mere 0.6%. Private consumption expenditure – spending by families on consumption – has...
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