-PTI/ The Indian Express "India's GDP is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent in the fiscal year that started in March," the World Bank said in the report released here. Washington: The World Bank on Thursday said that India’s GDP is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent this fiscal which is reflective of the national lockdown and the income shock experienced by households and firms due to the COVID-19 pandemic,...
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Growth compulsions, fiscal arithmetic -C Rangarajan and DK Srivastava
-The Hindu The economic situation warrants enhanced government expenditure; the policy challenge is to minimise the growth fall India’s growth in the first quarter of 2020-21 at (-) 23.9% showed one of the highest contractions globally. Global growth prospects for 2020 have been projected by a number of multilateral institutions and rating agencies including that for India. The 2020-21 real GDP Growth for India is forecast in the range of (-) 5.8%...
More »India should opt for income support so that pandemic does not turn into a financial crisis -Jahangir Aziz
-The Indian Express What is needed is ample income support for households and firms now so that the recovery is not hamstrung by excessively damaged balance sheets Even a cursory reading of Brazil’s recent history will confirm that the adoption of the all-encompassing cap on government spending in late 2016 was critical in rescuing the economy from the crisis of 2014-16. After riding the commodity boom of the 2000s, economic mismanagement and a...
More »An economic disaster foretold -Amit Bhaduri and Deepankar Basu
-The Hindu The reported contraction of the economy is likely an underestimate for reasons of omission and commission According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation of the Government of India on August 31, 2020, real quarterly GDP contracted by a whopping 23.9% between April-June 2019 and April-June 2020. This magnitude of real GDP decline is unprecedented since the country started publishing quarterly GDP estimates in 1996. This...
More »Tumbling down -Renu Kohli
-The Telegraph The slump in the GDP and the pain ahead The -23.9 per cent shrinkage in the April-June GDP is not a surprise as nearly half the period witnessed a national lockdown. It’s also not surprising that this loss is the world’s steepest for India’s lockdown was the most stringent and the accompanying fiscal policy response the weakest. But the quarter per cent slump did surprise most analysts who have since...
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