-The Indian Express States have spent less in this year, may focus on fiscal consolidation in the year to come. This belies hopes of a public-spending-led recovery. Over the past few weeks, several state governments have presented their budgets for the financial year 2021-22. These budgets shed light not only on how state finances have fared during the current year (2020-21) but equally critically, detail the expenditure stance of these governments during...
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A disconnect that shows the real state of the country’s economy -Himanshu
-Livemint.com * Disaggregated data contradicts the rosy picture that national accounts paint of our performance * It’s premature to conclude that a recovery is underway, as our GDP rise in 2020-21’s third quarter was on a very low base. Also, other data sets reveal that distress remains widespread. Estimates of growth in the third quarter of 2020-21 along with advance estimates of the full year were released last month by India’s statistics ministry....
More »Indian economy to be hardest hit by Covid-19 despite recovery, predicts new OECD report -Shoaib Daniyal
-Scroll.in The high growth in 2021 cannot undo the damage caused by the country’s harsh lockdown. India will be among the large economies most severely hit by the Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdown restrictions to combat it, a new report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts. Data published as part of the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2021 on Tuesday forecasts that the real GDP value of India’s economy...
More »Recovery? Different numbers tell different stories -Jahangir Aziz
-The Indian Express With a more accurate way of measuring GDP growth, the pace of recovery is much slower in real terms Imagine driving a car whose speedometer cannot tell the current speed but only relative to what it was four hours ago. Apart from the comical encounters with police when stopped for speeding and the predicament in defining a “speed limit”, there is a more fundamental problem it would create. The...
More »The return of puzzling numbers for India’s GDP growth -Pranjul Bhandari
-Livemint.com The Centre’s plan to pay off food subsidy arrears is likely to distort our GDP readings for multiple years A puzzle of sorts has arisen—again—in India’s official gross domestic product (GDP) estimates. They don’t meet the smell test. Back in 2015, the Central Statistics Office’s practice of using ‘single deflation’ instead of ‘double deflation’ during a period of falling commodity prices had distorted growth prints, as per our analysis. This time, too,...
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