Last week, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first annual monsoon forecast for June-September. Monsoons are likely to be normal with the probability of deficient or excessive monsoons being relatively low, according to IMD. If this prediction comes true, what does this really mean for India's economy? Impact on agricultural output: The first and most important impact is, of course, on agricultural production, especially in the kharif or summer season....

Rice, wheat production seen at highest ever, but other commodities show a decline from previous year’s harvest The government estimated a record high foodgrain crop for the 2011-12 crop year that ends in June, driven mainly by higher output of rice and wheat, but experts said prices are likely to remain firm and keep inflation at around 7%. The likelihood that the government will increase the minimum prices it guarantees farmers for...

Consumers may have to pay substantially more for pulses, oilseed, and rice in the coming months if the government accepts the recommendations of an expert panel to increase farm-gate price of these commodities by up to 30%, further stoking food inflation. The Commission on Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), under the ministry of agriculture, has recommended a 25% rise in the floor price of cotton, 16% rise in paddy, 30% rise...

-Reuters Global food prices rose in March for a third successive month, driven by gains in grains and vegetable oils, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation said on Thursday, putting food inflation firmly back on the economic agenda. Food prices hit record highs in February 2011 and stoked protests connected to the Arab Spring wave of civil unrest in some north African and middle eastern countries. They then receded but started...

-PTI Retail inflation was at 8.83 per cent in February on account of higher prices of protein based items and edible oil products.  Retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index, was 7.65 per cent the January, as per the government data release here today.  Among other items, only vegetable prices saw a decline of 4.73 per cent over the February 2011 level.  During the month, the prices of egg, meat and fish rose...