The World Economic Outlook – a bi-annual publication of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- released in October 2020 has anticipated that the economic progress made by the countries since the 1990s to reduce poverty would be turned upside down by the COVID-19 pandemic. On top of that, economic disparity would rise too in the post-COVID world because the crisis has disproportionately impacted women, informal sector workers and people with...
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Two joblessness narratives in India from two large-scale surveys -Sriharsha Devulapalli and Pramit Bhattacharya
-Livemint.com A Mint analysis suggests that the CMIE figures should not be considered a proxy for the official unemployment and labour force participation rates As the country went under lockdown, and everything, including the collection of statistics, came to a halt, analysts and economists were left scrambling for data to seize up just how badly the economy was doing. One dataset that has come to the rescue is the nationally representative employment-unemployment...
More »Reality check: on govt projecting slower GDP growth
-The Hindu Misplaced optimism needs to cede ground to tangible policy interventions The government’s advance estimates for economic output and growth for the fiscal year ending in March may raise eyebrows, but only for the wrong reasons. The National Statistical Office (NSO) has estimated that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will expand by 5% in the 12-month period, in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s sharp downward revision last month in its...
More »A difficult time for the economy -Renu Kohli
-The Telegraph It must be ensured that growth does not slide down further Economic news has been increasingly dismal for some time. The decline in economic activities since January-March 2018 accelerated this year, gathering pace in recent months and prompting concern it could turn into a recession. Some commentators argue the economy is in a recession; others disagree, saying growth is decelerating. Since recessions are defined as periods of negative real gross...
More »Why rural India can't afford to buy biscuits -Roshan Kishore
-Hindustan Times Unfortunately, there is no high frequency income or consumption data for the Indian economy. What we do have is monthly data for rural wages, which is available until June 2019. On Wednesday, media reports said that India’s leading biscuit-maker Parle Products Private Limited could cut up to 10,000 jobs as “slowing economic growth and falling demand in the rural heartland could cause production cuts”. The company’s flagship brand Parle-G...
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