Last week, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first annual monsoon forecast for June-September. Monsoons are likely to be normal with the probability of deficient or excessive monsoons being relatively low, according to IMD. If this prediction comes true, what does this really mean for India's economy? Impact on agricultural output: The first and most important impact is, of course, on agricultural production, especially in the kharif or summer season....

-The Business Standard   Too much grain, and no way to distribute it In about a month from now, the country’s ever-bulging foodgrain stockpile will bloat further to over 75 million tonnes, a record amount. This will be nearly two-and-a-half times the stipulated maximum food buffer. Worse, it will outstrip the available warehousing capacity (covered and open) of 63 million tonnes by a wide margin. Even today, a good part of the present...

-The Business Standard   Now MGNREGA may bear the burden of PDS' failure This newspaper reported on Tuesday that the rural development ministry approached the food ministry suggesting that work under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) be paid for using foodgrain. The impetus for the rural development ministry’s action is perhaps understandable. The Act provides for the possibility of a fraction of wages being paid in kind; the allocation...

Average per capita net availability of foodgrain declined in every five-year period of the 'reforms' without exception. In the 20 years preceding the reforms — 1972-1991 — it rose every five-year period without exception. The country's total foodgrain production is expected to touch a record 250 million tons this year (2011-12). Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar PTI, February 17, 2012 Record foodgrain output of 235.88 million tons in 2010-11. Sharad Pawar, PTI, April 6, 2011 India's foodgrain...

-The Indian Express   Increasing farm production and removing market imperfections would help in controlling prices of commodities, a report has said. The report on 'State of Indian Agriculture 2011-12', tabled in the Lok Sabha, said that the principal factors behind the higher levels of inflation in the recent period are constraints in production and distribution especially in high value items such as pulses, fruits and vegetables, egg and meat. Increase in prices can...