The World Economic Outlook – a bi-annual publication of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- released in October 2020 has anticipated that the economic progress made by the countries since the 1990s to reduce poverty would be turned upside down by the COVID-19 pandemic. On top of that, economic disparity would rise too in the post-COVID world because the crisis has disproportionately impacted women, informal sector workers and people with...
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A Govt Unequal to the Task as Economy Sinks -Prabhat Patnaik
-Newsclick.in The significant fall in government expenditure during the lockdown is just the opposite of what the Modi government should have done. A striking aspect of the 24% decline in India’s GDP in the first quarter of 2020-21 compared with the first quarter of the last fiscal year is the decline by 10.3% in public administration, defence and other public services. This is a sector where the GDP (gross domestic product) is...
More »India should opt for income support so that pandemic does not turn into a financial crisis -Jahangir Aziz
-The Indian Express What is needed is ample income support for households and firms now so that the recovery is not hamstrung by excessively damaged balance sheets Even a cursory reading of Brazil’s recent history will confirm that the adoption of the all-encompassing cap on government spending in late 2016 was critical in rescuing the economy from the crisis of 2014-16. After riding the commodity boom of the 2000s, economic mismanagement and a...
More »Tumbling down -Renu Kohli
-The Telegraph The slump in the GDP and the pain ahead The -23.9 per cent shrinkage in the April-June GDP is not a surprise as nearly half the period witnessed a national lockdown. It’s also not surprising that this loss is the world’s steepest for India’s lockdown was the most stringent and the accompanying fiscal policy response the weakest. But the quarter per cent slump did surprise most analysts who have since...
More »ExplainSpeaking on economy: Why unemployment could become a bigger headache for government -Udit Misra
-The Indian Express Rapid spread of Covid-19 and inadequate spending by government could result in India suffering a permanent loss of Rs 30 lakh crore, which is roughly the size of the Union Budget for 2020-21 Dear Readers, This week started with several economists coming out with their revised GDP growth expectations for India in response to the official GDP growth data that was released on August 31. With the economy shrinking more...
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