-The Indian Express Latest RBI bulletin projects contraction for a second consecutive quarter, which means the economy is in a ‘technical recession’. What does it mean, and how is it different from a ‘recession’ and a ‘recessionary phase’? In its latest monthly bulletin — for November — the Reserve Bank of India has dedicated a chapter on the “State of the economy”. The idea is to provide a monthly snapshot of some...
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Recession: July-Sept GDP to contract 8.6%, estimates RBI
-The Indian Express The RBI, however, said the economy will break out of contraction of the six months gone by and return to positive growth in the October-December quarter of 2020-21. Mumbai: The Indian economy likely entered into a technical recession for the first time in history at the end of the first half of 2020-21, according to the Reserve Bank of India. After an unprecedented decline of 23.9 per cent in GDP...
More »Did India Lock Down Too Early? -Ritwik Banerjee
-TheWire.in These are our findings from over 43 countries on how aware people were about COVID-19 at different stages of its progression. By now, Indians have become used to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s abrupt announcements – the consequences of which have changed the lives of many, forever. Demonetisation was one such announcement, then the reading down of Article 370, and then, the nationwide lockdown, announced on March 24 – with only four...
More »Growth compulsions, fiscal arithmetic -C Rangarajan and DK Srivastava
-The Hindu The economic situation warrants enhanced government expenditure; the policy challenge is to minimise the growth fall India’s growth in the first quarter of 2020-21 at (-) 23.9% showed one of the highest contractions globally. Global growth prospects for 2020 have been projected by a number of multilateral institutions and rating agencies including that for India. The 2020-21 real GDP growth for India is forecast in the range of (-) 5.8%...
More »Contraction of the Economy and the Impending Job Crisis -Satyaki Roy
-Vikalp.ind.in The sharp contraction of India’s GDP in 20-21 Q1 (April-June) of 23.9 per cent according to the quarterly estimates released by the National Statistical Organisation is a summary measure that need to be deconstructed to capture the ailing state of the Indian economy. The three sectors that suffered bigger contraction are respectively construction (-50.3%), trade hotels and restaurants (-47%) and manufacturing (-39.3%). Notably these are also the sectors that provided...
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