There is euphoria abound about India's growth performance during the first quarter of the current fiscal. As compared to the corresponding period last year, the year-on-year (y-o-y) GDP growth in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022-23 is down. However, one should take into account the fact that the high growth performance of the real GDP in Q1 of 2021-22 was due to the low base in the corresponding period of...
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The return of puzzling numbers for India’s GDP growth -Pranjul Bhandari
-Livemint.com The Centre’s plan to pay off food subsidy arrears is likely to distort our GDP readings for multiple years A puzzle of sorts has arisen—again—in India’s official gross domestic product (GDP) estimates. They don’t meet the smell test. Back in 2015, the Central Statistics Office’s practice of using ‘single deflation’ instead of ‘double deflation’ during a period of falling commodity prices had distorted growth prints, as per our analysis. This time, too,...
More »Solution to economy's woes: Boost incomes of those who will spend it best -Harish Damodaran
-Financial Express Two measures can do much to bring back price sentiment and liquidity in agricultural markets, just when farmers are set to harvest a bumper crop. The current economic slowdown began with Bharat. It has to also end with Bharat. According to the National Statistical Office’s GDP estimates for April-June 2019 released on Friday, India’s agriculture sector — which includes forestry and fishing — grew 2.04% year-on-year during the quarter....
More »Growth in Agri GVA deflator saw a rising trend between 2005-06 & 2009-10, despite using different sources of back-series data
The year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate in Agri Gross Value Added (GVA) deflator (an alternative measure of inflation) shows a rising trend between 2005-06 and 2009-10. In other words, price rise pertaining to the agrarian sector accelerated during the period under discussion. This particular trend has been observed irrespective of whether one uses the GVA/GDP back-series data (Base 2011-12=100) that was computed by the National Institution for Transforming India Aayog (NITI Aayog)...
More »Growth in Agri GVA deflator shows a declining trend in comparison to growth in other sectoral GVA deflators
Recent studies and media reports have confirmed that Indian farmers are facing non-remunerative and sometimes falling prices. A past news alert by the Inclusive Media for Change team indicated deflation in wholesale prices of 8 kharif crops (viz. maize, arhar, moong, urad, groundnut, soybean, sunflower seed and Niger seed) on average between 2016-17 and 2018-19. Based on data analysis, that news alert also demonstrated how the rural areas have witnessed...
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