-The Hindu 8.5 % less rain than normal against prediction of excess. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has erred on its forecast for monsoon rain in August. In June, it said that India would get more rain than it usually did but as of August 31, the country got significantly less — or 8.5 % less rain — than what’s normal for the month, according to the IMD website. While this wouldn’t affect...

-The Hindu New Delhi: Next year, India’s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a Supercomputer running a dynamical model. The Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was “ready for operational purposes next year.” A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes. Though...

-The Hindu The Hindu decided to find out whether these forecasts have worked in the past. Answer (based on 10 years of forecast data): not very accurately Chennai: Following the India Meteorological Department’s forecast of an ‘above normal’ monsoon of 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) on Tuesday, The Hindu decided to find out whether these forecasts have worked in the past. Answer (based on 10 years of forecast...

-The Hindu Waning El Nino among factors underlying Met office’s optimism. In line with recent predictions by private weather forecasters, India’s official weather forecasting agency too has said the monsoon is likely to be “above normal” and likely to be 106 per cent of the average of 89 cm. Monsoon rains within 96 per cent and 104 per cent of this average are considered “normal” in the terminology of the India Meteorological Department...

-The Indian Express Congratulations to the IMD which sounded out the country on below-normal rainfall at 93 per cent of the LPA and then downgraded it to 88 per cent. Skymet’s forecast for 102 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of the southwest monsoon was wrong. On September 30, the monsoon ended at 86 per cent of the LPA, leading to a second consecutive season with deficient rainfall (mild...