Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
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विश्वस्तर पर खाद्य-पदार्थ की कीमतों के मामले में मुद्रास्फीति के घटने के रुझान हैं। बहरहाल, आशंका यह है कि भारत के मामले में यह बात लागू ना हो पाये क्योंकि डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत गिर रही है।एफएओ ने हाल ही में खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों से संबंधित अपना सूचकांक जारी किया है। इससे जाहिर होता है कि जुलाई महीने में भी विश्वस्तर पर कीमतों की मुद्रास्फीति में कमी हुई है। कमी के रुझान पिछले तीन महीनों से जारी हैं। इसकी वजह है अनाज, पॉम ऑयल, मांस, दुग्ध-उत्पाद और चीनी जैसे खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों का अंतर्राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर कम होना। (देखें नीचे दी गई लिंक और हमारी वेबसाइट के अंग्रेजी खंड में दी गई <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html">तालिका-1</a>) एफएओ द्वारा जारी खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों के सूचकांक को आधार मानें तो वैश्विक स्तर पर इस मामले में मुद्रास्फीति की दर गिरकर ऋणात्मक मान में -3.3 फीसदी पर जा पहुंची है। 
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लेकिन देश में खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों की स्थिति ऐसी आशाजनक नहीं है। सच कहें तो थोक मूल्य सूचकांक(WPI) की तुलना एफएओ के खाद्य-मूल्य सूचकांक( Food Price Index) के साथ नहीं की जा सकती खासकर विभिन्न महीनों के संदर्भ में।यदि इस बाधा को छोड़कर बात करें तो थोक मूल्य सूचकांक के लिहाज से साल 2013 के जून महीने में खाद्य-पदार्थों मुद्रास्फीति की दर 9.7 रही जो कि एफएओ द्वारा प्रस्तुत गणना&nbsp; से बहुत ज्यादा है। (इस संदर्भ में देखें <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html">तालिका-2</a>)। थोक मूल्य-सूचकांक को आधार मानें तो मुद्रास्फीति की सालाना दर जून महीने के लिए खाद्यान्न के मामले में 16.5 फीसदी और शाक-सब्जियों के मामले में 17.2 फीसदी पर रही है। 
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&nbsp;रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा जारी मासिक बुलेटिन(अगस्त 2013) में कहा गया है कि वैश्विक स्तर पर व्याप्त अनिश्चितताओं के कारण पेट्रोलियम के मूल्यों में हुई बढोत्तरी और हाल के दिनों में डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत में आई गिरावट के कारण मुद्रास्फीति की आशंका बढ़ गई है। बुलेटिन में कहा गया है कि उपभोक्ता मूल्यों की स्फीति दहाई अंकों में पहुंची है जो कि चिन्ता का विषय है।
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बुलेटिन में सचेत करते हुए कहा गया है कि वैश्विक स्तर पर कच्चे तेल के मूल्यों में बढोत्तरी हुई है और हाल के हफ्तों में रुपया भी गिरा है इस लिए डीजल और बिजली के दामों में बढोत्तरी करना अनिवार्य हो गया और इस वजह से मुद्रास्फीति और ज्यादा बढ़ सकती है। गौरतलब है कि कोल इंडिया ने बीते 28 मई को कोयले की कीमतों में इजाफा किया। इस वजह से कई राज्यों के विद्युत बोर्डों को मई महीने में बिजली की कीमतों में बढोत्तरी करनी पड़ी। इस सिलसिले में एक बात यह भी ध्यान देने योग्य है कि कई अर्थशास्त्रियों के मुताबिक खाद्य-सुरक्षा कानून के लागू होने की स्थिति में सरकारी खजाने पर बोझ और ज्यादा बढेगा और इस वजह से मुद्रास्फीति की स्थिति आने वाले दिनों में और ज्यादा विकराल होगी। 
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&nbsp;डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत में गिरावट आने के कारण कच्चे पेट्रोलियम के आयात की कीमत बढ़ी है। इस वजह से कच्चे माल की कीमतों में भी इजाफा हुआ है। खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतें भी आसमान चढ़ रही है क्योंकि सरकार द्वारा डीजल की कीमतों में बढोत्तरी के कारण इन सामानों की ढुलाई का खर्चा बढ़ा है। कुछ अर्थशास्त्रियों का यह भी कहना है कि अत्यधिक बारिश के कारण आई बाढ़ से देश के कई हिस्से मुख्य भू-भाग से अलग-थलग पड़ गये हैं और फसलों को नुकसान पहुंचा है जिसका असर खाद्य-पदार्थ की कीमतों पर पडा है। विपक्ष का तर्क है कि बुनियादी ढांचे के निर्माण-कार्य में प्रगति धीमी रही है, खासकर सड़कों के निर्माण के मामले में, और इनके रख-रखाव पर भी खर्चा बढ़ा है जिसका नकारात्मक असर अर्थव्यवस्था पर हुआ है। 
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रिजर्व बैंक के मासिक बुलेटिन के अनुसार साल 2013-14 की पहली तिमाही में औसत मुद्रास्फीति(4.8 फीसद) साल 2012-13 की पहली तिमाही की मुद्रास्फीति(7.4 फीसदी) की तुलना में काफी कम थी। ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों में मजदूरी साल 2010-12 के दौरान 20 फीसदी की दर से बढ़ रही थी लेकिन साल 2012-13 में इसमें बढोत्तरी अपेक्षाकृत धीमी रही।ग्रामीण हलकों के लिए मुद्रास्फीति में तेज बढोत्तरी हुई है जिसके कारण वास्तविक मजदूरी की बढ़त में कमी आई है।
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<br />
( ध्यान रहे कि थोक मूल्य सूचकांक के आधार पर मुद्रास्फीति की गणना से मौजूदा मूल्य-स्थिति का ठीक-ठीक पता नहीं चलता क्योंकि थोक मूल्य-सूचकांक के आंकड़े तकरीबन दो माह की देरी से सार्वजनिक होते हैं)
</p>
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कृपया इस कथा के विभिन्न पहलुओं को विस्तार से जानने के लिए निम्नलिखित लिंक चटकायें
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<span>FAO World Food Situation, </span><a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank" title="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>Office of the Economic Adviser to
the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, </span><a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" target="_blank" title="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" target="_blank">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a><span>
&nbsp; </span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013
(August)</span>
</p>
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<a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" target="_blank" title="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" target="_blank">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a><span> </span>
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<span>&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" target="_blank" title="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a><span> </span>
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<span>&nbsp;What defines headline
inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, </span><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" target="_blank" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" target="_blank">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what<br />-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a><span> </span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;Food prices fall for third consecutive month&ndash;UN
agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f<br />all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat
Patnaik, 5 July, 2013</span>
</p>
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<a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" target="_blank" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf</a><span> </span>
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<span>&nbsp;Wholesale price inflation
likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August,
2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri<br />ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h<br />tml</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;UPA may miss highway building
target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-<br />highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227<br />2.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Will rising prices hit poll
result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p<br />rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220<br />92.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;It really is the economy,
stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,</span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-<br />the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Rains, incomes &amp; food:
Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic
Times, 12 July, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes<br />-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs<br />hu-watts-21909.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;A food security ordinance that
will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July,
2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi<br />ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing<br />-strange-21803.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Vegetable prices rise 50 per
cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri<br />ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217<br />04.html</a><span> &nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>(चित्र साभार-http://morewhat.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/IndianRupeeR.png से) &nbsp; </span>
</p>
&nbsp;
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विश्वस्तर पर खाद्य-पदार्थ की कीमतों के मामले में मुद्रास्फीति के घटने के रुझान हैं। बहरहाल, आशंका यह है कि भारत के मामले में यह बात लागू ना हो पाये क्योंकि डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत गिर रही है।एफएओ ने हाल ही में खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों से संबंधित अपना सूचकांक जारी किया है। इससे जाहिर होता है कि जुलाई महीने में भी विश्वस्तर पर कीमतों की मुद्रास्फीति में कमी हुई है। कमी के रुझान पिछले तीन महीनों से जारी हैं। इसकी वजह है अनाज, पॉम ऑयल, मांस, दुग्ध-उत्पाद और चीनी जैसे खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों का अंतर्राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर कम होना। (देखें नीचे दी गई लिंक और हमारी वेबसाइट के अंग्रेजी खंड में दी गई <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html">तालिका-1</a>) एफएओ द्वारा जारी खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों के सूचकांक को आधार मानें तो वैश्विक स्तर पर इस मामले में मुद्रास्फीति की दर गिरकर ऋणात्मक मान में -3.3 फीसदी पर जा पहुंची है। 
</p>
<p align="justify">
लेकिन देश में खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों की स्थिति ऐसी आशाजनक नहीं है। सच कहें तो थोक मूल्य सूचकांक(WPI) की तुलना एफएओ के खाद्य-मूल्य सूचकांक( Food Price Index) के साथ नहीं की जा सकती खासकर विभिन्न महीनों के संदर्भ में।यदि इस बाधा को छोड़कर बात करें तो थोक मूल्य सूचकांक के लिहाज से साल 2013 के जून महीने में खाद्य-पदार्थों मुद्रास्फीति की दर 9.7 रही जो कि एफएओ द्वारा प्रस्तुत गणना&nbsp; से बहुत ज्यादा है। (इस संदर्भ में देखें <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html">तालिका-2</a>)। थोक मूल्य-सूचकांक को आधार मानें तो मुद्रास्फीति की सालाना दर जून महीने के लिए खाद्यान्न के मामले में 16.5 फीसदी और शाक-सब्जियों के मामले में 17.2 फीसदी पर रही है। 
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<p align="justify">
&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा जारी मासिक बुलेटिन(अगस्त 2013) में कहा गया है कि वैश्विक स्तर पर व्याप्त अनिश्चितताओं के कारण पेट्रोलियम के मूल्यों में हुई बढोत्तरी और हाल के दिनों में डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत में आई गिरावट के कारण मुद्रास्फीति की आशंका बढ़ गई है। बुलेटिन में कहा गया है कि उपभोक्ता मूल्यों की स्फीति दहाई अंकों में पहुंची है जो कि चिन्ता का विषय है।
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<br />
बुलेटिन में सचेत करते हुए कहा गया है कि वैश्विक स्तर पर कच्चे तेल के मूल्यों में बढोत्तरी हुई है और हाल के हफ्तों में रुपया भी गिरा है इस लिए डीजल और बिजली के दामों में बढोत्तरी करना अनिवार्य हो गया और इस वजह से मुद्रास्फीति और ज्यादा बढ़ सकती है। गौरतलब है कि कोल इंडिया ने बीते 28 मई को कोयले की कीमतों में इजाफा किया। इस वजह से कई राज्यों के विद्युत बोर्डों को मई महीने में बिजली की कीमतों में बढोत्तरी करनी पड़ी। इस सिलसिले में एक बात यह भी ध्यान देने योग्य है कि कई अर्थशास्त्रियों के मुताबिक खाद्य-सुरक्षा कानून के लागू होने की स्थिति में सरकारी खजाने पर बोझ और ज्यादा बढेगा और इस वजह से मुद्रास्फीति की स्थिति आने वाले दिनों में और ज्यादा विकराल होगी। 
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<p align="justify">
<br />
&nbsp;डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत में गिरावट आने के कारण कच्चे पेट्रोलियम के आयात की कीमत बढ़ी है। इस वजह से कच्चे माल की कीमतों में भी इजाफा हुआ है। खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतें भी आसमान चढ़ रही है क्योंकि सरकार द्वारा डीजल की कीमतों में बढोत्तरी के कारण इन सामानों की ढुलाई का खर्चा बढ़ा है। कुछ अर्थशास्त्रियों का यह भी कहना है कि अत्यधिक बारिश के कारण आई बाढ़ से देश के कई हिस्से मुख्य भू-भाग से अलग-थलग पड़ गये हैं और फसलों को नुकसान पहुंचा है जिसका असर खाद्य-पदार्थ की कीमतों पर पडा है। विपक्ष का तर्क है कि बुनियादी ढांचे के निर्माण-कार्य में प्रगति धीमी रही है, खासकर सड़कों के निर्माण के मामले में, और इनके रख-रखाव पर भी खर्चा बढ़ा है जिसका नकारात्मक असर अर्थव्यवस्था पर हुआ है। 
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<p align="justify">
<br />
रिजर्व बैंक के मासिक बुलेटिन के अनुसार साल 2013-14 की पहली तिमाही में औसत मुद्रास्फीति(4.8 फीसद) साल 2012-13 की पहली तिमाही की मुद्रास्फीति(7.4 फीसदी) की तुलना में काफी कम थी। ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों में मजदूरी साल 2010-12 के दौरान 20 फीसदी की दर से बढ़ रही थी लेकिन साल 2012-13 में इसमें बढोत्तरी अपेक्षाकृत धीमी रही।ग्रामीण हलकों के लिए मुद्रास्फीति में तेज बढोत्तरी हुई है जिसके कारण वास्तविक मजदूरी की बढ़त में कमी आई है।
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<br />
( ध्यान रहे कि थोक मूल्य सूचकांक के आधार पर मुद्रास्फीति की गणना से मौजूदा मूल्य-स्थिति का ठीक-ठीक पता नहीं चलता क्योंकि थोक मूल्य-सूचकांक के आंकड़े तकरीबन दो माह की देरी से सार्वजनिक होते हैं)
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कृपया इस कथा के विभिन्न पहलुओं को विस्तार से जानने के लिए निम्नलिखित लिंक चटकायें
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</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<span>FAO World Food Situation, </span><a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank" title="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>Office of the Economic Adviser to
the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, </span><a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" target="_blank" title="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" target="_blank">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a><span>
&nbsp; </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013
(August)</span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" target="_blank" title="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" target="_blank">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" target="_blank" title="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;What defines headline
inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, </span><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" target="_blank" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" target="_blank">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what<br />-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Food prices fall for third consecutive month&ndash;UN
agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f<br />all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat
Patnaik, 5 July, 2013</span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" target="_blank" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Wholesale price inflation
likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August,
2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri<br />ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h<br />tml</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;UPA may miss highway building
target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-<br />highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227<br />2.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Will rising prices hit poll
result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p<br />rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220<br />92.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;It really is the economy,
stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,</span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-<br />the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Rains, incomes &amp; food:
Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic
Times, 12 July, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes<br />-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs<br />hu-watts-21909.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;A food security ordinance that
will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July,
2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi<br />ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing<br />-strange-21803.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Vegetable prices rise 50 per
cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri<br />ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217<br />04.html</a><span> &nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>(चित्र साभार-http://morewhat.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/IndianRupeeR.png से) &nbsp; </span>
</p>
&nbsp;
<br />
<p>
&nbsp;
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विश्वस्तर पर खाद्य-पदार्थ की कीमतों के मामले में मुद्रास्फीति के घटने के रुझान हैं। बहरहाल, आशंका यह है कि भारत के मामले में यह बात लागू ना हो पाये क्योंकि डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत गिर रही है।एफएओ ने हाल ही में खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों से संबंधित अपना सूचकांक जारी किया है। इससे जाहिर होता है कि जुलाई महीने में भी विश्वस्तर पर कीमतों की मुद्रास्फीति में कमी हुई है। कमी के रुझान पिछले तीन महीनों से जारी हैं। इसकी वजह है अनाज, पॉम ऑयल, मांस, दुग्ध-उत्पाद और चीनी जैसे खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों का अंतर्राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर कम होना। (देखें नीचे दी गई लिंक और हमारी वेबसाइट के अंग्रेजी खंड में दी गई <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html">तालिका-1</a>) एफएओ द्वारा जारी खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों के सूचकांक को आधार मानें तो वैश्विक स्तर पर इस मामले में मुद्रास्फीति की दर गिरकर ऋणात्मक मान में -3.3 फीसदी पर जा पहुंची है। 
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लेकिन देश में खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों की स्थिति ऐसी आशाजनक नहीं है। सच कहें तो थोक मूल्य सूचकांक(WPI) की तुलना एफएओ के खाद्य-मूल्य सूचकांक( Food Price Index) के साथ नहीं की जा सकती खासकर विभिन्न महीनों के संदर्भ में।यदि इस बाधा को छोड़कर बात करें तो थोक मूल्य सूचकांक के लिहाज से साल 2013 के जून महीने में खाद्य-पदार्थों मुद्रास्फीति की दर 9.7 रही जो कि एफएओ द्वारा प्रस्तुत गणना&nbsp; से बहुत ज्यादा है। (इस संदर्भ में देखें <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/get-ready-for-higher-food-prices-22314.html">तालिका-2</a>)। थोक मूल्य-सूचकांक को आधार मानें तो मुद्रास्फीति की सालाना दर जून महीने के लिए खाद्यान्न के मामले में 16.5 फीसदी और शाक-सब्जियों के मामले में 17.2 फीसदी पर रही है। 
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&nbsp;रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा जारी मासिक बुलेटिन(अगस्त 2013) में कहा गया है कि वैश्विक स्तर पर व्याप्त अनिश्चितताओं के कारण पेट्रोलियम के मूल्यों में हुई बढोत्तरी और हाल के दिनों में डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत में आई गिरावट के कारण मुद्रास्फीति की आशंका बढ़ गई है। बुलेटिन में कहा गया है कि उपभोक्ता मूल्यों की स्फीति दहाई अंकों में पहुंची है जो कि चिन्ता का विषय है।
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बुलेटिन में सचेत करते हुए कहा गया है कि वैश्विक स्तर पर कच्चे तेल के मूल्यों में बढोत्तरी हुई है और हाल के हफ्तों में रुपया भी गिरा है इस लिए डीजल और बिजली के दामों में बढोत्तरी करना अनिवार्य हो गया और इस वजह से मुद्रास्फीति और ज्यादा बढ़ सकती है। गौरतलब है कि कोल इंडिया ने बीते 28 मई को कोयले की कीमतों में इजाफा किया। इस वजह से कई राज्यों के विद्युत बोर्डों को मई महीने में बिजली की कीमतों में बढोत्तरी करनी पड़ी। इस सिलसिले में एक बात यह भी ध्यान देने योग्य है कि कई अर्थशास्त्रियों के मुताबिक खाद्य-सुरक्षा कानून के लागू होने की स्थिति में सरकारी खजाने पर बोझ और ज्यादा बढेगा और इस वजह से मुद्रास्फीति की स्थिति आने वाले दिनों में और ज्यादा विकराल होगी। 
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&nbsp;डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत में गिरावट आने के कारण कच्चे पेट्रोलियम के आयात की कीमत बढ़ी है। इस वजह से कच्चे माल की कीमतों में भी इजाफा हुआ है। खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतें भी आसमान चढ़ रही है क्योंकि सरकार द्वारा डीजल की कीमतों में बढोत्तरी के कारण इन सामानों की ढुलाई का खर्चा बढ़ा है। कुछ अर्थशास्त्रियों का यह भी कहना है कि अत्यधिक बारिश के कारण आई बाढ़ से देश के कई हिस्से मुख्य भू-भाग से अलग-थलग पड़ गये हैं और फसलों को नुकसान पहुंचा है जिसका असर खाद्य-पदार्थ की कीमतों पर पडा है। विपक्ष का तर्क है कि बुनियादी ढांचे के निर्माण-कार्य में प्रगति धीमी रही है, खासकर सड़कों के निर्माण के मामले में, और इनके रख-रखाव पर भी खर्चा बढ़ा है जिसका नकारात्मक असर अर्थव्यवस्था पर हुआ है। 
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रिजर्व बैंक के मासिक बुलेटिन के अनुसार साल 2013-14 की पहली तिमाही में औसत मुद्रास्फीति(4.8 फीसद) साल 2012-13 की पहली तिमाही की मुद्रास्फीति(7.4 फीसदी) की तुलना में काफी कम थी। ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों में मजदूरी साल 2010-12 के दौरान 20 फीसदी की दर से बढ़ रही थी लेकिन साल 2012-13 में इसमें बढोत्तरी अपेक्षाकृत धीमी रही।ग्रामीण हलकों के लिए मुद्रास्फीति में तेज बढोत्तरी हुई है जिसके कारण वास्तविक मजदूरी की बढ़त में कमी आई है।
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( ध्यान रहे कि थोक मूल्य सूचकांक के आधार पर मुद्रास्फीति की गणना से मौजूदा मूल्य-स्थिति का ठीक-ठीक पता नहीं चलता क्योंकि थोक मूल्य-सूचकांक के आंकड़े तकरीबन दो माह की देरी से सार्वजनिक होते हैं)
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कृपया इस कथा के विभिन्न पहलुओं को विस्तार से जानने के लिए निम्नलिखित लिंक चटकायें
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<span>FAO World Food Situation, </span><a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank" title="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a><span> </span>
</p>
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<span>Office of the Economic Adviser to
the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, </span><a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" target="_blank" title="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" target="_blank">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a><span>
&nbsp; </span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013
(August)</span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" target="_blank" title="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" target="_blank">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" target="_blank" title="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a><span> </span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;What defines headline
inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, </span><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" target="_blank" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" target="_blank">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what<br />-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Food prices fall for third consecutive month&ndash;UN
agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f<br />all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat
Patnaik, 5 July, 2013</span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" target="_blank" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Wholesale price inflation
likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August,
2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri<br />ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h<br />tml</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;UPA may miss highway building
target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-<br />highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227<br />2.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Will rising prices hit poll
result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p<br />rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220<br />92.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;It really is the economy,
stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,</span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify; line-height: 12pt" class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-<br />the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Rains, incomes &amp; food:
Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic
Times, 12 July, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes<br />-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs<br />hu-watts-21909.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;A food security ordinance that
will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July,
2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi<br />ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing<br />-strange-21803.html</a><span> </span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;Vegetable prices rise 50 per
cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, </span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" target="_blank" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" target="_blank">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri<br />ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217<br />04.html</a><span> &nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="line-height: normal" class="MsoNormal">
<span>(चित्र साभार-http://morewhat.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/IndianRupeeR.png से) &nbsp; </span>
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&nbsp;
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महंगाई को अभी और आसमान चढ़ना है!

Published on Aug 14, 2013   Modified on Aug 14, 2013

विश्वस्तर पर खाद्य-पदार्थ की कीमतों के मामले में मुद्रास्फीति के घटने के रुझान हैं। बहरहाल, आशंका यह है कि भारत के मामले में यह बात लागू ना हो पाये क्योंकि डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत गिर रही है।एफएओ ने हाल ही में खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों से संबंधित अपना सूचकांक जारी किया है। इससे जाहिर होता है कि जुलाई महीने में भी विश्वस्तर पर कीमतों की मुद्रास्फीति में कमी हुई है। कमी के रुझान पिछले तीन महीनों से जारी हैं। इसकी वजह है अनाज, पॉम ऑयल, मांस, दुग्ध-उत्पाद और चीनी जैसे खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों का अंतर्राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर कम होना। (देखें नीचे दी गई लिंक और हमारी वेबसाइट के अंग्रेजी खंड में दी गई तालिका-1) एफएओ द्वारा जारी खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों के सूचकांक को आधार मानें तो वैश्विक स्तर पर इस मामले में मुद्रास्फीति की दर गिरकर ऋणात्मक मान में -3.3 फीसदी पर जा पहुंची है। लेकिन देश में खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतों की स्थिति ऐसी आशाजनक नहीं है। सच कहें तो थोक मूल्य सूचकांक(WPI) की तुलना एफएओ के खाद्य-मूल्य सूचकांक( Food Price Index) के साथ नहीं की जा सकती खासकर विभिन्न महीनों के संदर्भ में।यदि इस बाधा को छोड़कर बात करें तो थोक मूल्य सूचकांक के लिहाज से साल 2013 के जून महीने में खाद्य-पदार्थों मुद्रास्फीति की दर 9.7 रही जो कि एफएओ द्वारा प्रस्तुत गणना  से बहुत ज्यादा है। (इस संदर्भ में देखें तालिका-2)। थोक मूल्य-सूचकांक को आधार मानें तो मुद्रास्फीति की सालाना दर जून महीने के लिए खाद्यान्न के मामले में 16.5 फीसदी और शाक-सब्जियों के मामले में 17.2 फीसदी पर रही है।    रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा जारी मासिक बुलेटिन(अगस्त 2013) में कहा गया है कि वैश्विक स्तर पर व्याप्त अनिश्चितताओं के कारण पेट्रोलियम के मूल्यों में हुई बढोत्तरी और हाल के दिनों में डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत में आई गिरावट के कारण मुद्रास्फीति की आशंका बढ़ गई है। बुलेटिन में कहा गया है कि उपभोक्ता मूल्यों की स्फीति दहाई अंकों में पहुंची है जो कि चिन्ता का विषय है। बुलेटिन में सचेत करते हुए कहा गया है कि वैश्विक स्तर पर कच्चे तेल के मूल्यों में बढोत्तरी हुई है और हाल के हफ्तों में रुपया भी गिरा है इस लिए डीजल और बिजली के दामों में बढोत्तरी करना अनिवार्य हो गया और इस वजह से मुद्रास्फीति और ज्यादा बढ़ सकती है। गौरतलब है कि कोल इंडिया ने बीते 28 मई को कोयले की कीमतों में इजाफा किया। इस वजह से कई राज्यों के विद्युत बोर्डों को मई महीने में बिजली की कीमतों में बढोत्तरी करनी पड़ी। इस सिलसिले में एक बात यह भी ध्यान देने योग्य है कि कई अर्थशास्त्रियों के मुताबिक खाद्य-सुरक्षा कानून के लागू होने की स्थिति में सरकारी खजाने पर बोझ और ज्यादा बढेगा और इस वजह से मुद्रास्फीति की स्थिति आने वाले दिनों में और ज्यादा विकराल होगी।  डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये की कीमत में गिरावट आने के कारण कच्चे पेट्रोलियम के आयात की कीमत बढ़ी है। इस वजह से कच्चे माल की कीमतों में भी इजाफा हुआ है। खाद्य-पदार्थों की कीमतें भी आसमान चढ़ रही है क्योंकि सरकार द्वारा डीजल की कीमतों में बढोत्तरी के कारण इन सामानों की ढुलाई का खर्चा बढ़ा है। कुछ अर्थशास्त्रियों का यह भी कहना है कि अत्यधिक बारिश के कारण आई बाढ़ से देश के कई हिस्से मुख्य भू-भाग से अलग-थलग पड़ गये हैं और फसलों को नुकसान पहुंचा है जिसका असर खाद्य-पदार्थ की कीमतों पर पडा है। विपक्ष का तर्क है कि बुनियादी ढांचे के निर्माण-कार्य में प्रगति धीमी रही है, खासकर सड़कों के निर्माण के मामले में, और इनके रख-रखाव पर भी खर्चा बढ़ा है जिसका नकारात्मक असर अर्थव्यवस्था पर हुआ है। रिजर्व बैंक के मासिक बुलेटिन के अनुसार साल 2013-14 की पहली तिमाही में औसत मुद्रास्फीति(4.8 फीसद) साल 2012-13 की पहली तिमाही की मुद्रास्फीति(7.4 फीसदी) की तुलना में काफी कम थी। ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों में मजदूरी साल 2010-12 के दौरान 20 फीसदी की दर से बढ़ रही थी लेकिन साल 2012-13 में इसमें बढोत्तरी अपेक्षाकृत धीमी रही।ग्रामीण हलकों के लिए मुद्रास्फीति में तेज बढोत्तरी हुई है जिसके कारण वास्तविक मजदूरी की बढ़त में कमी आई है। ( ध्यान रहे कि थोक मूल्य सूचकांक के आधार पर मुद्रास्फीति की गणना से मौजूदा मूल्य-स्थिति का ठीक-ठीक पता नहीं चलता क्योंकि थोक मूल्य-सूचकांक के आंकड़े तकरीबन दो माह की देरी से सार्वजनिक होते हैं) कृपया इस कथा के विभिन्न पहलुओं को विस्तार से जानने के लिए निम्नलिखित लिंक चटकायें FAO World Food Situation, http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, http://eaindustry.nic.in/    RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August) http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf  http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx  What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what -defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece  Food prices fall for third consecutive month–UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html  The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013 http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf  Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h tml  UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss- highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227 2.html  Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220 92.html  It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is- the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html  Rains, incomes & food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes -food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs hu-watts-21909.html  A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing -strange-21803.html  Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217 04.html    (चित्र साभार-http://morewhat.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/IndianRupeeR.png से)

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