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Interviews | Santosh K Mehrotra, Professor of Economics at the Centre for Informal Sector & Labour Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, interviewed by Sobhana K Nair (The Hindu)
Santosh K Mehrotra, Professor of Economics at the Centre for Informal Sector & Labour Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, interviewed by Sobhana K Nair (The Hindu)

Santosh K Mehrotra, Professor of Economics at the Centre for Informal Sector & Labour Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, interviewed by Sobhana K Nair (The Hindu)

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published Published on May 25, 2020   modified Modified on Jun 3, 2020

-The Hindu

India risks losing benefits of the demographic dividend by not creating enough jobs for new entrants, warns Professor Mehrotra.

Santosh K Mehrotra, Professor of Economics at the Centre for Informal Sector & Labour Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University and author of the recently launched book Reviving Jobs: An Agenda For Growth said the current reverse migration has set the country back by 15 years, and stressed that the economic stimulus package announced by the government is minuscule compared to the package rolled-out by then Manmohan Singh government during the 2008 crisis.
How prolonged will be the economic impact of this extended lockdown and do you see the workers who left the cities returning anytime soon?

I see a long economic and migrant worker impact. I don't see them streaming back in a hurry. The trauma has been far too great. There are many reasons why they left — poor living conditions here, overnight loss of livelihood, no social security and so on. They will not return in a hurry and relates to your larger question on the revival of the economy; for the first time in decades, India’s economy will contract in FY21, and revive in the latter half of FY22 (as RBI has admitted). Also, we were in an economic crisis even before the pandemic started.

But before we get there, you need to appreciate the contrasting economic situation prevailing in the last quarter of 2019 before the pandemic, and the pre-2008 crisis situation. Before 2008, all engines of growth were firing.

Our investment-to-GDP ratio was at an all time. GDP growth was 8-9% per annum and because of that the job growth was very rapid. We had five million unskilled workers leaving agriculture for the first time in Indian history because non-agri jobs were growing.

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The Hindu, 25 May, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/reverse-migration-to-villages-has-set-economy-back-by-15-years-says-jnu-professor/article31671389.ece?homepage=true


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