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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | 2009-10 turns out not all that bad for farm sector by Harish Damodaran

2009-10 turns out not all that bad for farm sector by Harish Damodaran

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published Published on May 31, 2010   modified Modified on May 31, 2010


Drought impacted agricultural production but not farm incomes. 

The year 2009-10 was supposedly a bad year for Indian agriculture, given the worst ever monsoon since 1972.

This is partly reflected in the 0.2 per cent growth registered by the farm sector (inclusive of forestry and fishing) in real terms, as per the Central Statistical Organisation's latest revised estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for last fiscal.

The virtual stagnation in agricultural output contrasted with a 10.8 per cent increase in manufacturing, i.e. production from factories.

However, real output growth (or lack of it) is not what ultimately counts, at least for the producer. For him, it is the increase in the value of produce — which is a function of output as well as price — that matters. This value, measured in current prices, is the income that accrues to him.

The value of agricultural output in current prices rose by 11.8 per cent during 2010-11, crossing the Rs 10 lakh crore mark for the first time. This was not substantially below the corresponding 14.4 per cent growth in manufacturing output value.

Simply put, last year's drought impacted agricultural production, but not farm incomes.

The loss (or near-zero growth) of output was more than offset by higher prices, as captured by the large gap between the ‘nominal' (11.8 per cent) and ‘real' (0.2 per cent) increase in agricultural GDP. So, while food inflation definitely hurt India, it may have been a blessing in disguise.

On the other hand, the 14.4 per cent growth in manufacturing income was predominantly contributed by increased output (up 10.8 per cent), with corporates not having as much leeway to raise prices.

It is only the last couple of months that have witnessed India Inc regain some pricing power — rising non-food manufacturing inflation and higher capacity utilisation levels reported by firms being proof of this.

The effect that favourable terms of trade had for agriculture during 2009-10 can be seen in the accompanying table, which compares farm GDP with manufacturing GDP in both real as well as current value terms.

While in constant 2004-05 prices, the value of agricultural output (Rs 6,51,901 crore) stood below that of manufacturing (Rs 7,19,975 crore), it was just the other way (Rs 10,04,594 crore versus Rs 9,31,101 crore) measured in absolute current value.

And this pattern was observed in all but one quarter.


The Business Line, 1 June, 2010, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/06/01/stories/2010060152530400.htm


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