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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Circular migration is holding back India's urbanization -Dipti Jain

Circular migration is holding back India's urbanization -Dipti Jain

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published Published on Nov 24, 2016   modified Modified on Nov 24, 2016
-Livemint.com

Many urban workers go back to their villages instead of settling in cities with their families, a study shows

One of the biggest announcements after Narendra Modi assumed office was the announcement of the smart cities project, which involves overhauling of urban infrastructure in 100 Indian cities.

In April, Niti Aayog chairman Arvind Panagariya predicted India’s urbanization rate to increase to over 60% in the next 30 years, assuming a 7-9% rate of economic growth.

These policies and statements underline the importance of urbanization in the Indian growth story in the days to come.

Analyzing India’s urbanization performance, so far, could be a useful tool to get an idea about how realistic such claims are. The numbers are not very encouraging.

Between 2001 and 2011 census, India’s urbanization went up from 27.8% to 31.1%. Not only is the number far from impressive, it also makes Panagariya’s predictions way too optimistic. What explains this tepid growth in urbanisation in India?

A recent paper titled Urbanisation, Demographic Transition and the Growth of Cities in India, 1870-2020 (please click here to access), authored by Chinmay Tumbe, an assistant professor of economics at IIM-Ahmedabad, gives some useful insights on this issue.

Tumbe argues that India’s urbanization has been both low and slow irrespective of which definition is applied to measure its pace. The 2011 census defines urban areas as settlements with a local urban body and with a population of at least 5,000 people, density of at least 400 people per square km, and at least 75% of the male main working population engaged in non-agricultural activities.

But even if the definition of urban areas were to be relaxed to include all rural areas with a population of more than 10,000, the change in urbanization would remain the same, although the level would increase to 37% for 2011, the paper says.

If the definition were to be further expanded to include all rural areas with population over 5,000, India’s urbanization level would increase to 47% in 2011, but the pace of growth would still be around three percentage points.

In fact, analysis of historical figures from 1870 onwards shows that India’s urbanization pace has slowed down in the recent period.

Please click here to read more.

Livemint.com, 23 November, 2016, http://www.livemint.com/Politics/p9l9OfhAoycxqPq9wShSmI/Circular-migration-is-holding-back-Indias-urbanization.html


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