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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Declining Cattle Population -Nilakantha Rath

Declining Cattle Population -Nilakantha Rath

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published Published on Jul 12, 2015   modified Modified on Jul 12, 2015
-Economic and Political Weekly

There has been a major change in the composition and mix of the cattle population in India. The proportion of male cattle has declined sharply as farmers do not fi nd it worthwhile to maintain bullocks to plough holdings that are becoming smaller and smaller. The composition of the milch cattle population too is changing. The proportion of the indigenous breed is falling and that of the exotic/cross-bred is growing. There are differences between states in the pattern of change, but those who seek protection of the cow and a ban on cow slaughter seem to be unaware of what has been happening.

Nilakantha Rath (nrath66@yahoo.co.in) is Honorary Fellow at the Indian School of Political Economy, Pune.

The data on cattle population cited in this article are taken from the 18th and 19th All India Livestock Census, 2007 and 2012, respectively. The data on small farmer holdings are taken from the latest report on the agricultural census. The information on smuggling of cattle to Bangladesh is based on a report published in the Hindu, 4 June 2015. I record my thanks to Chanda Nimbkar, Sharadini Rath, Tapan Mishra and Satyajit Rath for helpful suggestions.

In recent times, the cattle population in India has shown signs of undergoing a sea change. Earlier, during the five years 1956–60, the cattle population of India increased at 2% a year; in Odisha the annual growth rate was 4.5% and in Uttar Pradesh 2.7%. The growth rate was as high as that of the human population. In the country there were 50 sacred bovines for every 100 humans. The situation threatened to get out of control. But over the next half century there was fortunately a change. By 1992, there were about 20 crore cattle, only 23 for every 100 humans. And during the 20 years since 1992 the total population of cows and progeny has declined, from 20 crore to about 19 crore (by 6.69%).

But this hides the differential growth of the exotic/cross-bred cattle and the indigenous type. The population of the exotic/cross-bred has been growing steadily, from about 1.5 crore in 1992 to a little less than 4 crore in 2012, constituting 7% of the total cattle population in 1992 and 21% in 2012. Taking these out of the total cattle population, the population of the indigenous cattle has declined from a little less than 19 crore to a little over 15 crore (a decline of 20.15%) over the two decades.

This decline has been mainly due to the decline in the population of indigenous male cattle. The total male cattle population declined slightly, from 7.75 crore in 2003 to 7.67 crore in 2007, but significantly to 6.19 crore by 2012. The number of the male indigenous cattle, mainly bullocks, declined by 1.56 crore during these 10 years.

Decline in Use of Cattle

The reason is straight and simple. The average size of cultivated landholdings in India has significantly declined over time. Today more than three-fourths of the cultivated landholdings in the country are of less than 2 hectares in size and more than half of this is of less than 1 hectare. (The average size of holdings of the small farmers is 0.67 ha or 1.78 acres.) It has become very difficult for most small farmers to maintain even one bullock, not to speak of a pair. They tend to hire the bullocks and ploughs from others for the main ploughing work or, increasingly, hire tractors, small or large, for the purpose. The larger farmers use tractors rather than keep bullocks. The bullocks are sold, ostensibly to traders who sell them to butchers. These Hindu farmers know the destiny of the cattle they sell, but cannot help it. Keeping them will mean both their cattle’s starvation and their own in the end.

While the decline in the number of the male indigenous cattle has already started, that of the cows is also on its way. During the five years, 2007–12, the number of adult cows has not increased (there has been, indeed, a very small decline for the first time). The increased milk supply is being taken care of by the growing number (and proportion) of the exotic/cross-bred cows (besides another major milch animal, the buffalo) who now constitute more than a fifth of the total cattle population of India. Gradually the number of the indigenous cattle, both male and female, will decline. Indeed. the total population of cattle will decline, since the exotic and the cross-bred, in combination with the growing buffalo population, will meet the demand for more milk. And bullocks will become very expensive to maintain, leading to a decline in their numbers.

Regional Differences

This all-India picture is, of course, not the picture of every state in the union. We shall examine changes in four states: Maharashtra, which has recently banned slaughter of all types of cattle; Odisha, which had the highest growth rate of cattle population in the country half a century ago and has for half a century a law banning slaughter of any cattle; Gujarat which has recorded the highest growth in the total number of cattle, 25.2% (one of five states; the other four states being: Rajasthan 9.94%, Uttar Pradesh 3.57%, Chhattisgarh 3.41% and Assam 2.65%); and Tamil Nadu, that has recorded the highest decline in the cattle population.

Maharashtra had about 1.62 crore heads of cattle in 2007. In five years, by 2012, the total number had declined by 7 lakh (to 1.55 crore). But, interestingly, the decline was in the population of the cross-bred male cattle as well as of the indigenous male cattle and in the number of the indigenous cows. Only the exotic/cross-bred cows increased in number, by about 6.3 lakh. The male ones constituted about 17% of the total cross-bred and it declined to 12% by 2012. The point to note is that the sex division in the birth of cattle is like in the case of humans, roughly fifty-fifty. The very low proportion of the male population amongst the cross-bred was, therefore, because the males are considered much less useful and are disposed of as early as possible. In Maharashtra the male constituted only about one-eighth of the cross-bred cattle population in 2012. The important thing to note is that the number of male indigenous cattle also declined, from 76.3 lakh to 67.8 lakh (by about 8.5 lakh). But, what is even more important is that the population of the indigenous cows also declined, from 54.3 lakh to 50.53 lakh. This was compensated by an increase in the number of cross-bred cows by more than 6 lakh. The more than 12 lakh cattle that were taken out during these five years went mostly to the slaughter house. Now that Maharashtra has banned slaughter of all cattle, where will they go?

The situation in Odisha is quite different. The state has witnessed a drastic change in the growth of the cattle population during the preceding half century. From an annual growth rate of 4.5% during 1956–60, it recorded a negative growth rate during 2007–12: a decline of 5.6% in five years or an annual decline of 1%. This is a welcome development. But that appears to be all! The cross-bred cattle were about 14% of the total cattle population in 2007; it had declined to 11% by 2012. Fortunately, the decline was mainly due to the decline in the number of male cross-bred: from 8.8 lakh to 3.2 lakh and an increase in the number of the female ones. There was no perceptible change in the number of the indigenous male cattle! Interestingly, there was a decline in the number of the indigenous female cattle, from 50.3 lakh to 48.1 lakh. There was also a decline in the number of the cows in milk at the time of the survey in 2012. This appears to have been compensated by the increase in the number of the cross-bred cows in milk. Back in 1960, the Odisha Legislative Assembly passed a law, called the Prevention of Cow Slaughter Act, 1960, (Act 5 of 1961) which bans slaughter of all cattle, except those that are certified by a responsible officer to be in physical handicap or disease and/or is more than 18 years of age and therefore fit to be slaughtered. This possibly is the reason why even the male cross-bred were not slaughtered till 2007.

In recent years there has been an extensive export of cattle (illegally) from Odisha, Bihar and West Bengal (as well as some other north and even west Indian states) to Bangladesh. Bangladesh imports nearly two-thirds of the cattle annually slaughtered in that country. Its main export is leather, hides and skin as well as leather goods. There is also some restriction on the manner of transport of cattle in Odisha. Odisha’s cattle economy at present, therefore, appears to be an example of what a more progressive cattle economy in another state can become if the farmers are prevented by law from disposing of their unproductive cattle.

The situation in Gujarat was quite different from that of many other states. Of the five states recording an increase in the total cattle population in the five years, from 2007 to 2012, Gujarat recorded the highest increase, 25.2%. The increase was entirely due to the increase in the population of the female cattle of both types. In 2007, the cross-bred constituted over 14% of the total cattle population. And, unlike in Odisha, the males were less than 19% of the cross-bred’s total population. This shows that in Gujarat the farmers were disposing of their male cross-bred. This was true of the indigenous male cattle, but in smaller proportion. The male constituted 48.5% of the total. By 2012 the number of the males, both cross-bred and indigenous, had declined significantly, by 8.8%. The very significant increase was in the population of both types of female cattle: their total population increased from about 77 lakh to about 99 lakh. And, while the cross-bred increased from 9.3 lakh to 17.3 lakh, the indigenous increased from 35 lakh to 50 lakh. This was quite different from the situation in many other states. This is a major milk producing state and has traditionally a breed (Gir) that is better milk yielding. But the important point to note is that while the female cow population greatly increased, that of the male drastically declined. If this had not been permitted, what would have happened?

Change in Tamil Nadu

The fourth state, Tamil Nadu, shows a pattern of change that all other states are likely to show, if not hindered by ban laws. The introduction of exotic and cross-bred cattle started in this state much earlier than elsewhere. By 2007 the exotic and cross-bred cattle constituted nearly two-thirds (66%) of the total cattle population of the state. By 2012 their share went up to 72%. What was more important was that the population of all categories of cattle recorded a decline: the cross-bred, both male and female, declined from 1.12 crore to 88 lakh (by 21.2%). The decline was much larger in the population of the indigenous, by 35.4%. The cross-bred declined by only 14%. And, of course, the biggest declines were in the numbers of the male cattle: the total male cattle declined by 41%, while the female by only 14.8%. Even in this the bigger decline was in the population of the indigenous cows, 30% in these five years. If unhindered by laws banning slaughter of cattle, the indigenous cattle population will most probably be reduced to insignificant numbers in another two decades.

The Odisha situation characterises the pattern in a very smallholding farm economy, with poor irrigation and multi-cropping, heavy dependence of people on agriculture and low urbanisation, where the cattle economy is largely incidental to subsistence agriculture and severely handicapped by a law banning slaughter of all types of cattle. But for the illegal export of cattle to Bangladesh, the situation would have been worse. (Recently, the effort of the Indian forces in the India–Bangladesh border to prevent smuggling of cattle from India has led to decline in such exports and high price of cattle in Bangladesh and reduced exports of its products.)

And, against this is the trend in Tamil Nadu, a fast urbanising state with developed and intensive irrigation and fast declining dependence on farming for employment. The superior milk yielding exotic and cross-bred cows will gradually become the major milch animals.

Gujarat shows the chances of a better milk yielding local breed; but even then the proportion of the cross-bred is growing and will continue to grow, though the decline in the importance of the indigenous cow might take more time. If slaughter of the male is prohibited, it is very difficult to imagine the rapid growth in the number and milk production of both types of cows.

Maharashtra shows the picture of the nation’s average state. If unhindered, it will steadily move in the direction of Tamil Nadu. But, if the slaughter of all cattle and trade in beef is banned, as it has now been, it will soon revert to the Odisha situation and worse. What will the farmers do if they cannot sell their cattle, both male and female? Is it possible for the state government to run feeding centres for the vast and growing numbers of useless cattle and cattle that cannot be maintained by the farmers, when the government has found it difficult to feed the much smaller numbers during a few months of a period of drought? The abandoned cattle in the countryside as well as in towns will become a terrible nuisance to agriculture as well as for the safety and security of people.

Dim Prospects for the Indigenous

The indigenous milch cattle has little chance of survival and growth. Long ago the Brazilian government imported Gir cows and bulls from Gujarat and Ongole cattle from Andhra Pradesh. Over years, through systematic selective breeding, they have developed an extremely high milk yielding Gir species and a very high quality beef cattle of the Ongole variety, which they are also exporting. Until now nothing had been done to improve the stock of our indigenous cattle in India. Very belatedly, an attempt has been started with a few breeds. But the ban on slaughter of cattle threatens to sound the death knell of any such endeavour. Both the indigenous and the cross-bred cattle will ultimately perish.

The reason behind the demand for a ban on slaughter of the cow and its progeny is well known. The problem faced by the “sacred cattle” in India has been a matter of concern for a significant section of its Hindu population. This was the reason why in the Constituent Assembly a powerful group of members of Parliament, including of course many Congressmen, insisted on a ban on slaughtering of cows being put in the Constitution. The resistance to this was equally powerful. A final settlement was to include a provision to the effect in the Directive Principles, which are only indicative and not obligatory, unlike the Fundamental Rights.

Sometime after independence, using this provision, a section of political leadership as well as Hindu religious advocates began pressing for promulgation of a law to this effect. The then Shankarachrya of the Govardhan Math in Puri went on a fast (only during the day time?) in November 1966 to press the demand. Today, after half a century, with a government by a political party wedded to Hindutva in the centre and in some of the states, there is a renewal of this demand. The extension of the law to ban slaughter of cows to all its progeny and the ban on trade in and stocking of beef by the new state government of Maharashtra is due to this renewal.

The reason behind this latest demand is the same as before: the cow is sacred to the Hindus, who worship it as Mother and who use its excreta, like urine and stools (gobar), besides of course milk, in all their religious ceremonies. They believe that the cow’s body contains 33 crore godheads mentioned in Hindu puranas. Vinayak Damodar Savarkar describes how these 33 crore godheads are crammed in the body of the cow:

    All, all Gods, including Vishnu, Brahma, Shankha, Chandra, Surya, Soma, Yama, et cetera, are crowded into her body. Some in the eye, some in the teeth, whosoever could manage wheresoever. On its backbone, the gods are so severely crowded, like the mischievous kids on a bench during the half-hour recess between teaching sessions, that if even a cow worshipper, finding her eating the wheat laid out for drying, hits her with a wooden stick, it is most likely that at least half a dozen godheads will try to escape from the back! Finding such extreme crowding, Kul Parvat (Hill) tried to enter through her hoof. Nag (the Snake god) in the tail, Maharshis in the holes in the hair! But, the most pathetic condition was that of poor Maruta and Varuna! Like Bones for the late comers, these two had to remain satisfied with the places that were available. The two places were the (intestinal) Wind for Maruta and the Vagina for Varuna! And, Ganga, in Urine!” (Translated from his essay, “Cow—A Useful Animal, Not Mother and Certainly Not a God” in Savarkaranche Samajik Vichar, compiled by Vidyadhar Pundalik, Majestic Prakashan, 1973).

The sacred cow runs the risk of ultimately becoming a scarce animal in the village, maintained by the temple for its excreta and for worship, possibly a “golden cow,” like by the Jews of ancient times! In the absence of efforts to significantly improve the indigenous breeds this is sure to happen. With a ban, this process is likely to be expedited. Even god cannot save the sacred cow!

The data on cattle population cited in this article are taken from the 18th and 19th All India Livestock Census, 2007 and 2012, respectively. The data on small farmer holdings are taken from the latest report on the agricultural census. The information on smuggling of cattle to Bangladesh is based on a report published in the Hindu, 4 June 2015. I record my thanks to Chanda Nimbkar, Sharadini Rath, Tapan Mishra and Satyajit Rath for helpful suggestions.

Economic and Political Weekly, Vol-L, No. 28, July 11, 2015, http://www.epw.in/commentary/declining-cattle-population.html


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