Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
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Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Demonetisation a massive, draconian, monetary shock: Arvind Subramanian    </title>
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The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth.

Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock that accelerated economic slide to 6.8% in the seven quarters after it against the 8% recorded prior to the note..."/>
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-IANS

The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth.

Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock that accelerated economic slide to 6.8% in the seven quarters after it against the 8% recorded prior to the note..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-IANS<br /><br /><em>The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth.<br /></em><br />Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock that accelerated economic slide to 6.8% in the seven quarters after it against the 8% recorded prior to the note ban, says former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian.<br /><br />Breaking his silence on the November 8, 2016 decision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he says that he does not have a strongly-backed empirical view apart from the fact that the welfare costs, especially on the informal sector, were substantial.<br /><br />Though Subramanian, who quit the post earlier this year after a four-year tenure, has devoted a chapter in the upcoming book &ldquo;Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy,&rdquo; he continued to keep a studied silence on whether he was consulted in the decision-making process of demonetisation. The detractors of the government had said that the Prime Minister had not consulted the CEA on the crucial decision.<br /><br />&ldquo;Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock: In one fell swoop, 86% of the currency in circulation was withdrawn. The real GDP growth was affected by the demonetisation. Growth had been slowing even before, but after demonetisation, the slide accelerated.&rdquo;<br /><br />&ldquo;In the six quarters before demonetisation, growth averaged 8% and in the seven quarters after, it averaged about 6.8% (with a four quarter window, the relevant numbers are 8.1% before and 6.2% after),&rdquo; Subramanian says in the chapter &lsquo;The Two Puzzles of Demonetisation &mdash; Political and Economic.&rsquo;<br /><br />The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth. Rather, the debate has been about the size of the effect &mdash;whether it was 2% points, or much less. &ldquo;After all, many other factors affected growth in this period, especially higher real interest rates, GST implementation and oil prices,&rdquo; he writes<br /><br />&rdquo;...But when a shock like demonetisation occurs, that primarily affects the informal sector, relying on formal indicators to measure overall activity will overstate GDP. This hypothesis goes only a small way towards explaining the puzzle since any squeeze in informal sector incomes would depress demand in the formal sector, and this effect should have been sizable.&rdquo;<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/demonetisation-a-massive-draconian-monetary-shock-arvind-subramanian/article25621183.ece?homepage=true" title="https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/demonetisation-a-massive-draconian-monetary-shock-arvind-subramanian/article25621183.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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                            <div align="justify">-IANS<br /><br /><em>The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth.<br /></em><br />Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock that accelerated economic slide to 6.8% in the seven quarters after it against the 8% recorded prior to the note ban, says former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian.<br /><br />Breaking his silence on the November 8, 2016 decision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he says that he does not have a strongly-backed empirical view apart from the fact that the welfare costs, especially on the informal sector, were substantial.<br /><br />Though Subramanian, who quit the post earlier this year after a four-year tenure, has devoted a chapter in the upcoming book &ldquo;Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy,&rdquo; he continued to keep a studied silence on whether he was consulted in the decision-making process of demonetisation. The detractors of the government had said that the Prime Minister had not consulted the CEA on the crucial decision.<br /><br />&ldquo;Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock: In one fell swoop, 86% of the currency in circulation was withdrawn. The real GDP growth was affected by the demonetisation. Growth had been slowing even before, but after demonetisation, the slide accelerated.&rdquo;<br /><br />&ldquo;In the six quarters before demonetisation, growth averaged 8% and in the seven quarters after, it averaged about 6.8% (with a four quarter window, the relevant numbers are 8.1% before and 6.2% after),&rdquo; Subramanian says in the chapter &lsquo;The Two Puzzles of Demonetisation &mdash; Political and Economic.&rsquo;<br /><br />The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth. Rather, the debate has been about the size of the effect &mdash;whether it was 2% points, or much less. &ldquo;After all, many other factors affected growth in this period, especially higher real interest rates, GST implementation and oil prices,&rdquo; he writes<br /><br />&rdquo;...But when a shock like demonetisation occurs, that primarily affects the informal sector, relying on formal indicators to measure overall activity will overstate GDP. This hypothesis goes only a small way towards explaining the puzzle since any squeeze in informal sector incomes would depress demand in the formal sector, and this effect should have been sizable.&rdquo;<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/demonetisation-a-massive-draconian-monetary-shock-arvind-subramanian/article25621183.ece?homepage=true" title="https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/demonetisation-a-massive-draconian-monetary-shock-arvind-subramanian/article25621183.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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                            <div align="justify">-IANS<br /><br /><em>The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth.<br /></em><br />Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock that accelerated economic slide to 6.8% in the seven quarters after it against the 8% recorded prior to the note ban, says former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian.<br /><br />Breaking his silence on the November 8, 2016 decision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he says that he does not have a strongly-backed empirical view apart from the fact that the welfare costs, especially on the informal sector, were substantial.<br /><br />Though Subramanian, who quit the post earlier this year after a four-year tenure, has devoted a chapter in the upcoming book &ldquo;Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy,&rdquo; he continued to keep a studied silence on whether he was consulted in the decision-making process of demonetisation. The detractors of the government had said that the Prime Minister had not consulted the CEA on the crucial decision.<br /><br />&ldquo;Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock: In one fell swoop, 86% of the currency in circulation was withdrawn. The real GDP growth was affected by the demonetisation. Growth had been slowing even before, but after demonetisation, the slide accelerated.&rdquo;<br /><br />&ldquo;In the six quarters before demonetisation, growth averaged 8% and in the seven quarters after, it averaged about 6.8% (with a four quarter window, the relevant numbers are 8.1% before and 6.2% after),&rdquo; Subramanian says in the chapter &lsquo;The Two Puzzles of Demonetisation &mdash; Political and Economic.&rsquo;<br /><br />The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth. Rather, the debate has been about the size of the effect &mdash;whether it was 2% points, or much less. &ldquo;After all, many other factors affected growth in this period, especially higher real interest rates, GST implementation and oil prices,&rdquo; he writes<br /><br />&rdquo;...But when a shock like demonetisation occurs, that primarily affects the informal sector, relying on formal indicators to measure overall activity will overstate GDP. This hypothesis goes only a small way towards explaining the puzzle since any squeeze in informal sector incomes would depress demand in the formal sector, and this effect should have been sizable.&rdquo;<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/demonetisation-a-massive-draconian-monetary-shock-arvind-subramanian/article25621183.ece?homepage=true" title="https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/demonetisation-a-massive-draconian-monetary-shock-arvind-subramanian/article25621183.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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Demonetisation a massive, draconian, monetary shock: Arvind Subramanian

Published on Nov 29, 2018   Modified on Nov 29, 2018

-IANS The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth. Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock that accelerated economic slide to 6.8% in the seven quarters after it against the 8% recorded prior to the note ban, says former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian. Breaking his silence on the November 8, 2016 decision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he says that he does not have a strongly-backed empirical view apart from the fact that the welfare costs, especially on the informal sector, were substantial. Though Subramanian, who quit the post earlier this year after a four-year tenure, has devoted a chapter in the upcoming book “Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy,” he continued to keep a studied silence on whether he was consulted in the decision-making process of demonetisation. The detractors of the government had said that the Prime Minister had not consulted the CEA on the crucial decision. “Demonetisation was a massive, draconian, monetary shock: In one fell swoop, 86% of the currency in circulation was withdrawn. The real GDP growth was affected by the demonetisation. Growth had been slowing even before, but after demonetisation, the slide accelerated.” “In the six quarters before demonetisation, growth averaged 8% and in the seven quarters after, it averaged about 6.8% (with a four quarter window, the relevant numbers are 8.1% before and 6.2% after),” Subramanian says in the chapter ‘The Two Puzzles of Demonetisation — Political and Economic.’ The former CEA says he does not think anyone disputes that demonetisation slowed growth. Rather, the debate has been about the size of the effect —whether it was 2% points, or much less. “After all, many other factors affected growth in this period, especially higher real interest rates, GST implementation and oil prices,” he writes ”...But when a shock like demonetisation occurs, that primarily affects the informal sector, relying on formal indicators to measure overall activity will overstate GDP. This hypothesis goes only a small way towards explaining the puzzle since any squeeze in informal sector incomes would depress demand in the formal sector, and this effect should have been sizable.” Please click here to read more.

The Hindu, 29 November, 2018, https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/demonetisation-a-massive-draconian-monetary-shock-arvind-subramanian/article25621183.ece?homepage=true

Tagged with: Unorganized Manufacturing Sector Unorganized Workers informal economy informal employment Informal Trade Informal Work Informal Workers Demonetisation Note Ban Economic Growth

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