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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Falling far short of the goal -CP Chandrasekhar

Falling far short of the goal -CP Chandrasekhar

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published Published on Jul 6, 2019   modified Modified on Jul 6, 2019
-The Hindu

The rhetoric in the Budget of accelerated, inclusive and sustainable development receives only limited financial backing

The general election is over and a new government has been formed. But the campaign does not seem to end. More than an hour of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s maiden Budget speech was largely devoted to underlining what she claimed were the remarkable economic achievements of the previous government. Given that legacy, she presented her role as one of expanding and strengthening the many achievements of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first government. To underline that, she flagged the 10 points earlier presented as a vision for the decade in the interim Budget speech.

This raises two questions. First, how far has Ms. Sitharaman gone in actually extending and strengthening the initiatives that make it possible to realise the goals deriving from that vision? And, second, how does she intend to finance that effort to build on and take forward a legacy she claimed has laid out the agenda?

Ambition is not lacking. India, which was an approximately $1.85 trillion economy when the previous government took over (2014), and has grown to become a $2.7 trillion economy today will, the Prime Minister promises, grow to be a $5 trillion economy by 2024. Allowing for an inflation rate of 5%, that requires a real growth rate of 8% or more per annum. If GDP has to grow at that rate, investment must rise sharply. The Budget is clear on the government’s role in this process. It cannot invest too much, but it must ensure huge investments in infrastructure and elsewhere by attracting and incentivising private investors. Optimistically leaving this to the private sector, the government focusses on taking the benefits of growth to the rural areas, the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises and the marginalised.

A shortfall

However, one striking feature of the figures that make up the Budget is that the allocations to match this ambition are significantly short of requirement. Going by the nominal GDP figures implicit in the fiscal deficit ratios provided, total expenditure of the Central government which rose from 12.7% of GDP in 2017-18 to 13.2% of GDP in 2018-19, would remain at 13.1% of GDP in 2019-20. Spending to “kick-start” growth is absent.

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The Hindu, 6 July, 2019, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/falling-far-short-of-the-goal/article28299107.ece?fbclid=IwAR0Yw73yl45feH5l2qUUm9KoJdPC54WG-SJrxDAKg1XcTspdw-iogyk4aZI


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