Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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                            <div align="justify">-Livemint.com<br /><br /><em>Every pollster has predicted an NDA win. Is exit poll a fraud science or can one attach some credibility to it?<br /></em><br />On 23 May, India would have a new government and exit pollsters would have their judgment day. The exit polls forecast anywhere between 267 (ABP-Nielsen) to 365 seats (India Today-Axis Poll) for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Such a wide variation in the range of seats and contradictory findings in many key states has created a brouhaha, with enough doubts being cast on the art of election night forecasting. The inability of pollsters to make accurate forecasts in the recent past (particularly, the 2004 Lok Sabha exit poll debacle) has added to the criticism of exit polls becoming an election night tamasha&mdash;nothing more than &ldquo;a circus in town&quot;.<br /><br />But an ordinary person can use a set of basic thumb rules to reasonably judge the quality of any exit poll. While TV channels may boast about the &ldquo;biggest sample&quot;, what really matters is the representativeness of that sample and whether it mirrors the Indian electorate accurately (instead of, for example, the sample containing too many upper castes or urban dwellers). The second indicator is the direction of the various polls. Third, the vote share estimates of the top two parties and the gap between them. Last comes the polling organization&rsquo;s past reputation, especially in calling close elections.<br /><br />The biggest problem with the chaos of exit poll night, and the days which follow until results are announced, may be that not all polling agencies release all the above information. Only a seat count is put out. Unfortunately, TV channels and their polling agencies are in a mad rush to announce only the largest sample sizes and the number of constituencies covered. The quality of the data, even of a smaller size, will always outweigh the usefulness of huge sample sizes. Only Lokniti-CSDS and Cicero Associates put out a detailed methodological note. IPSOS and CVoter provide some information.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/how-exit-polls-landed-on-a-modi-return-1558373860298.html" title="https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/how-exit-polls-landed-on-a-modi-return-1558373860298.html">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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                            <div align="justify">-Livemint.com<br /><br /><em>Every pollster has predicted an NDA win. Is exit poll a fraud science or can one attach some credibility to it?<br /></em><br />On 23 May, India would have a new government and exit pollsters would have their judgment day. The exit polls forecast anywhere between 267 (ABP-Nielsen) to 365 seats (India Today-Axis Poll) for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Such a wide variation in the range of seats and contradictory findings in many key states has created a brouhaha, with enough doubts being cast on the art of election night forecasting. The inability of pollsters to make accurate forecasts in the recent past (particularly, the 2004 Lok Sabha exit poll debacle) has added to the criticism of exit polls becoming an election night tamasha&mdash;nothing more than &ldquo;a circus in town&quot;.<br /><br />But an ordinary person can use a set of basic thumb rules to reasonably judge the quality of any exit poll. While TV channels may boast about the &ldquo;biggest sample&quot;, what really matters is the representativeness of that sample and whether it mirrors the Indian electorate accurately (instead of, for example, the sample containing too many upper castes or urban dwellers). The second indicator is the direction of the various polls. Third, the vote share estimates of the top two parties and the gap between them. Last comes the polling organization&rsquo;s past reputation, especially in calling close elections.<br /><br />The biggest problem with the chaos of exit poll night, and the days which follow until results are announced, may be that not all polling agencies release all the above information. Only a seat count is put out. Unfortunately, TV channels and their polling agencies are in a mad rush to announce only the largest sample sizes and the number of constituencies covered. The quality of the data, even of a smaller size, will always outweigh the usefulness of huge sample sizes. Only Lokniti-CSDS and Cicero Associates put out a detailed methodological note. IPSOS and CVoter provide some information.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/how-exit-polls-landed-on-a-modi-return-1558373860298.html" title="https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/how-exit-polls-landed-on-a-modi-return-1558373860298.html">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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                            <div align="justify">-Livemint.com<br /><br /><em>Every pollster has predicted an NDA win. Is exit poll a fraud science or can one attach some credibility to it?<br /></em><br />On 23 May, India would have a new government and exit pollsters would have their judgment day. The exit polls forecast anywhere between 267 (ABP-Nielsen) to 365 seats (India Today-Axis Poll) for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Such a wide variation in the range of seats and contradictory findings in many key states has created a brouhaha, with enough doubts being cast on the art of election night forecasting. The inability of pollsters to make accurate forecasts in the recent past (particularly, the 2004 Lok Sabha exit poll debacle) has added to the criticism of exit polls becoming an election night tamasha&mdash;nothing more than &ldquo;a circus in town&quot;.<br /><br />But an ordinary person can use a set of basic thumb rules to reasonably judge the quality of any exit poll. While TV channels may boast about the &ldquo;biggest sample&quot;, what really matters is the representativeness of that sample and whether it mirrors the Indian electorate accurately (instead of, for example, the sample containing too many upper castes or urban dwellers). The second indicator is the direction of the various polls. Third, the vote share estimates of the top two parties and the gap between them. Last comes the polling organization&rsquo;s past reputation, especially in calling close elections.<br /><br />The biggest problem with the chaos of exit poll night, and the days which follow until results are announced, may be that not all polling agencies release all the above information. Only a seat count is put out. Unfortunately, TV channels and their polling agencies are in a mad rush to announce only the largest sample sizes and the number of constituencies covered. The quality of the data, even of a smaller size, will always outweigh the usefulness of huge sample sizes. Only Lokniti-CSDS and Cicero Associates put out a detailed methodological note. IPSOS and CVoter provide some information.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/how-exit-polls-landed-on-a-modi-return-1558373860298.html" title="https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/how-exit-polls-landed-on-a-modi-return-1558373860298.html">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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How exit polls landed on a Modi return -Rahul Verma

Published on May 21, 2019   Modified on May 21, 2019

-Livemint.com Every pollster has predicted an NDA win. Is exit poll a fraud science or can one attach some credibility to it? On 23 May, India would have a new government and exit pollsters would have their judgment day. The exit polls forecast anywhere between 267 (ABP-Nielsen) to 365 seats (India Today-Axis Poll) for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Such a wide variation in the range of seats and contradictory findings in many key states has created a brouhaha, with enough doubts being cast on the art of election night forecasting. The inability of pollsters to make accurate forecasts in the recent past (particularly, the 2004 Lok Sabha exit poll debacle) has added to the criticism of exit polls becoming an election night tamasha—nothing more than “a circus in town". But an ordinary person can use a set of basic thumb rules to reasonably judge the quality of any exit poll. While TV channels may boast about the “biggest sample", what really matters is the representativeness of that sample and whether it mirrors the Indian electorate accurately (instead of, for example, the sample containing too many upper castes or urban dwellers). The second indicator is the direction of the various polls. Third, the vote share estimates of the top two parties and the gap between them. Last comes the polling organization’s past reputation, especially in calling close elections. The biggest problem with the chaos of exit poll night, and the days which follow until results are announced, may be that not all polling agencies release all the above information. Only a seat count is put out. Unfortunately, TV channels and their polling agencies are in a mad rush to announce only the largest sample sizes and the number of constituencies covered. The quality of the data, even of a smaller size, will always outweigh the usefulness of huge sample sizes. Only Lokniti-CSDS and Cicero Associates put out a detailed methodological note. IPSOS and CVoter provide some information. Please click here to read more.

Livemint.com, 21 May, 2019, https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/how-exit-polls-landed-on-a-modi-return-1558373860298.html

Tagged with: Lokniti-CSDS Exit Poll Exit Polls Lok Sabha elections Voter surveys

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